USD/CHF Trading Plan – Technical Rebound Near EMA89, Resistance Ahead at 0.8298
📌 Market Overview
USD/CHF is showing signs of technical recovery after a recent sell-off from the 0.8338 high. The current retracement is supported by price action rebounding near the 0.8212 zone — a key demand area that aligns with the EMA89 on the H1 timeframe.
However, the broader structure remains uncertain as the pair awaits directional cues from upcoming US macroeconomic data and market sentiment around the Swiss franc’s safe-haven flows.
🔍 Technical Outlook
Main trend: Still bearish on higher timeframes
Short-term bias: Technical bounce in play
EMA Setup: EMA13 and EMA34 are curling upward → but EMA89 acts as strong dynamic resistance above
🔑 Key Technical Zones:
Resistance:
0.8264 – 0.8298 → short-term resistance area
0.8320 – 0.8338 → previous supply zone and daily structure resistance
Support:
0.8235 → minor intraday support
0.8212 → EMA89 retest + breakout demand block
0.818x → historical low and deeper demand zone
📊 Trade Scenarios
✳️ Scenario 1 – SELL Setup Near Resistance
If price retests the 0.8298 zone and prints reversal signals → short the bounce
Entry: 0.8290 – 0.8298
SL: 0.8320
TP: 0.8260 → 0.8235 → 0.8210
✳️ Scenario 2 – BUY the Retest Near Support
If price pulls back to 0.8212 and holds structure with EMA89 confluence → potential short-term BUY
Entry: 0.8212 – 0.8220
SL: 0.8185
TP: 0.8235 → 0.8260 → 0.8290
⚠️ Strategy Note:
Avoid buying into resistance at 0.8298 unless there's a strong breakout with volume. Current price action favors "sell on rally" setups unless key zones break decisively.
🌐 Macro Context
Upcoming PCE Data (May 31): The US Personal Consumption Expenditures index could spark volatility. Weak data may pressure the USD and strengthen CHF.
Geopolitical Tensions Ease: Risk-off flows into CHF have cooled slightly as US-EU trade concerns subside.
SNB vs. Fed Outlook: The Swiss National Bank remains dovish, but the Fed’s uncertain tone limits USD upside. Yield differentials remain supportive for USDCHF to stay choppy within range.
✅ Final Thoughts
USDCHF is staging a mild technical rebound but still faces significant hurdles near 0.8298. Sell setups remain favorable near resistance while buy scalps are valid around EMA89 if price confirms structure.
📌 Market Overview
USD/CHF is showing signs of technical recovery after a recent sell-off from the 0.8338 high. The current retracement is supported by price action rebounding near the 0.8212 zone — a key demand area that aligns with the EMA89 on the H1 timeframe.
However, the broader structure remains uncertain as the pair awaits directional cues from upcoming US macroeconomic data and market sentiment around the Swiss franc’s safe-haven flows.
🔍 Technical Outlook
Main trend: Still bearish on higher timeframes
Short-term bias: Technical bounce in play
EMA Setup: EMA13 and EMA34 are curling upward → but EMA89 acts as strong dynamic resistance above
🔑 Key Technical Zones:
Resistance:
0.8264 – 0.8298 → short-term resistance area
0.8320 – 0.8338 → previous supply zone and daily structure resistance
Support:
0.8235 → minor intraday support
0.8212 → EMA89 retest + breakout demand block
0.818x → historical low and deeper demand zone
📊 Trade Scenarios
✳️ Scenario 1 – SELL Setup Near Resistance
If price retests the 0.8298 zone and prints reversal signals → short the bounce
Entry: 0.8290 – 0.8298
SL: 0.8320
TP: 0.8260 → 0.8235 → 0.8210
✳️ Scenario 2 – BUY the Retest Near Support
If price pulls back to 0.8212 and holds structure with EMA89 confluence → potential short-term BUY
Entry: 0.8212 – 0.8220
SL: 0.8185
TP: 0.8235 → 0.8260 → 0.8290
⚠️ Strategy Note:
Avoid buying into resistance at 0.8298 unless there's a strong breakout with volume. Current price action favors "sell on rally" setups unless key zones break decisively.
🌐 Macro Context
Upcoming PCE Data (May 31): The US Personal Consumption Expenditures index could spark volatility. Weak data may pressure the USD and strengthen CHF.
Geopolitical Tensions Ease: Risk-off flows into CHF have cooled slightly as US-EU trade concerns subside.
SNB vs. Fed Outlook: The Swiss National Bank remains dovish, but the Fed’s uncertain tone limits USD upside. Yield differentials remain supportive for USDCHF to stay choppy within range.
✅ Final Thoughts
USDCHF is staging a mild technical rebound but still faces significant hurdles near 0.8298. Sell setups remain favorable near resistance while buy scalps are valid around EMA89 if price confirms structure.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.