Long

Bullish Setup for USDCHF

Updated

We will want to see a retracement to find a more favorable entry. With yesterday's strong move up, it would be prudent to find a better entry on the pullback into the Pivot Stack. The support is intact and with the bullish Hammer I think this is a good Risk Reward trade.

Note the downward DPMAs, but remember this indicator lags so it's ok to enter with conflicting indicators. We will want to target our profits before the Monthly Pivot Range as shown on the chart. The new month will start next Monday so we will get a good look at the new levels of support and resistance for the longer timeframe.

*See the Legend below for the Indicator Guide*

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Indicator Legend:
Daily Pivot Range-DPR (blue/magenta dots) | Weekly Pivot Range-WPR (orange/red dots) | Monthly Pivot Range-MPR (green/black dots)
6 Day Rolling Pivot Range-RPR (lime/yellow dots)
Daily Pivot Moving Averages-DPMA: red=14 day, yellow=30 day, white=50 day

Note

The price has not pulled back to the entry level and the price has moved up nicely and looks like it may indeed reach the MPR which is longer term resistance.
If you did enter early then you have a nice profit and I would move your stop loss up to below the Pivot Stack around .9595

Keep in mind we will see the new MPR on Monday, Oct 1 which will show us the new longer time frame bias. Based on the price action you could see the new MPR below the price which would be a bullish bias and a possible continuation upward.

What I am saying is, you may want to hold your position, depending on market action through Friday...or take profit if you reach near the current MPR low (.9730) and then reevaluate a possible reentry on Monday with the release of the new MPR on the chart:) Hope that makes sense - make a comment if you need help understanding this idea.

Note

Here is updated chart that shows you the MPR and new DPR location on the chart

Note

Interestingly, the price did a retrace back to exactly the price I suggested to put a limit at, .9623 during yesterday's session, and after the strong rally. With that said, the current rally (see today's Daily chart) comes off the lead up to the favorable U.S. GDP numbers and we are now at the MPR low resistance level.

This is where it gets a little sticky as our original premise was to reach for a profit target at this level. However, the new Monthly Pivot Range (MPR) will come out on Monday and this could provide for new support on a longer term basis. Hence, the question...do we exit here or hang on until Monday. That is up to you...dear trading friend. But there is an old adage..."a bird in the hand, is worth 2 in the bush".

Note

If you have stayed long the market you have additional profits from the continuation move up later in the day. With the new DPR numbers out the bias continues to be long as you can see in the latest chart below. For now put your stop loss at breakeven and we can look at trailing the stop loss up once the 6 Day RPR moves up.

Note

The trade continues to trend nicely. With the new pivots out, you can see they are all supportive. We will continue to trail the stop loss, keeping it a necessary good distance away to allow for the daily fluctuations.

Note

I should have pointed out that I want to place the stop loss below the Monthly Pivot Range low which should be very good support. I chose not to place the stop loss at the often used levels of the 6 Day RPR for our stop loss, because of the MPR level being higher and enough of a distance away to warrant a good level. The 6 Day RPR will catch up and should trail higher up than the MPR as the days continue, at which time we can look at using the 6 Day RPR indicator for a new trailing stop loss level.

Note

The market is showing continued strength. I will raise the stop loss to just under the low of the 6 Day RPR at .97150
The Daily Pivot Moving Averages 14 Day/30 Day are crossing over into a bullish signal also.

Note

Raising stop loss to .98240, a pip underneath the new 6 Day RPR low.

Trade closed: stop reached

The stop loss was raised to .98790, which is a pip below the 6 Day RPR. We are now out of this trade. You can see the rollover of the market taking place with the 3 days in a row inverse hammer candles. Then the 6 Day RPR coming up fairly quickly to stop us out very nicely with a handsome profit of approximately 250 pips.

chris333

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