The 140.00 level in USD/JPY has so far held the lows in 2025 after that price did the same in 2024. There was just one day of testing below that price last year and it was around the weekly open of the first FOMC rate cut for the last cycle. Sellers couldn't find much momentum below and a couple days later, when the Fed did actually cut, price put in a higher-low and then eventually reversed in Q4.
But at this stage it looks more and more like we'll see eventual tightening of rates between the U.S. and Japan as inflation in Japan remains elevated and growth in the US somewhat weak.
Timing remains the issue and USD/JPY has brewed several bear traps already this year. It seems unlikely that the BoJ will be too aggressive towards rate moves with the uncertainty of tariffs looming overhead, but tonight's rate decision is a quarterly meeting meaning the Bank will issue updated outlooks, and when they last did this on January 27th it allowed for a lower-low in USD/JPY that continued to spiral lower until the 140.00 bounce that showed last week.
For resistance, 145.00 is a major level as this was prior support that hasn't yet been tested as resistance. - js
But at this stage it looks more and more like we'll see eventual tightening of rates between the U.S. and Japan as inflation in Japan remains elevated and growth in the US somewhat weak.
Timing remains the issue and USD/JPY has brewed several bear traps already this year. It seems unlikely that the BoJ will be too aggressive towards rate moves with the uncertainty of tariffs looming overhead, but tonight's rate decision is a quarterly meeting meaning the Bank will issue updated outlooks, and when they last did this on January 27th it allowed for a lower-low in USD/JPY that continued to spiral lower until the 140.00 bounce that showed last week.
For resistance, 145.00 is a major level as this was prior support that hasn't yet been tested as resistance. - js
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.