NFP forecast
Updated
U.S. job growth likely slowed in August after two straight months of robust gains, but the pace of increase should be more than sufficient for the Federal Reserve to announce a plan to start trimming its massive bond portfolio.
While the job gains would clear the path for the U.S. central bank to outline a plan to start shrinking its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting, tepid wage growth could leave a December interest rate increase in doubt.
Average hourly earnings are forecast rising 0.2 percent after advancing 0.3 percent in June, likely keeping the year-on-year gain in wages at 2.5 percent for a fifth consecutive month
The wages component of the jobs report will be key.
If earnings are to have picked up along with employment, we will see a straightforward reaction with U.S. stocks and yields rising and the dollar being bought
While the job gains would clear the path for the U.S. central bank to outline a plan to start shrinking its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting, tepid wage growth could leave a December interest rate increase in doubt.
Average hourly earnings are forecast rising 0.2 percent after advancing 0.3 percent in June, likely keeping the year-on-year gain in wages at 2.5 percent for a fifth consecutive month
The wages component of the jobs report will be key.
If earnings are to have picked up along with employment, we will see a straightforward reaction with U.S. stocks and yields rising and the dollar being bought
Note
Non-farm payrolls for August 2017Prior was +209K (revised to 189K
Estimates ranged from +139K to +226K
Private payrolls 165K vs +172K expected
Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
Participation rate vs 62.9% prior
Wages data:
Average hourly earnings +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected
Average hourly earnings 2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expected
Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.5 expected
confuse!!!.
Trade closed: stop reached
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