Trading Recommendations and Trade Idea for USD/JPY

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The price test at 147.14 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential.

Today's data showing a slower decline in machinery and equipment orders in Japan, along with strong figures for the growth of Japan's services activity index, supported the yen and led to a downward correction in the USD/JPY pair. However, despite this temporary reprieve for the Japanese currency, fundamental factors continue to point to a sustained upward trend for USD/JPY in the medium term.

First and foremost, it important to consider the absence of a comprehensive trade agreement between Japan and the United States. This factor creates uncertainty for the Japanese economy and puts pressure on the yen. Until there is clarity in trade relations, investors are likely to remain cautious toward the Japanese currency.

Secondly, the divergence in monetary policy between the U.S Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan plays a key role. The Fed continues to pursue a tight monetary policy, while the BoJ maintains a wait-and-see approach aimed at stimulating economic growth. This interest rate differential makes, exerting additional pressure on the yen.

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