Why is the Bank of Japan nervous? ...
Updated
To properly represent (and trade!) the Yen related pairs, it is strongly recommended to create a Yen-based currency basket. (I did attempt to import data into TV from such a basket - weighted by the acceleration differential between the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF and a basket of Central European currencies versus the Yen but for some reason I couldn't make that work. I.e., the main chart here represents the next best thing which is an unweighted USD|EUR|GBP|AUD|CAD / YEN basket, to convey the same idea.)
The central problem the Bank of Japan is facing at this moment, continued acceleration of rate (and thus, price) differentials relative to the other G-20 currencies. (I.e., The Yen price levels, alone, would not cause the same concerns.) On the top of it, China's PBC decided to dump massive amounts of Yen (and Euro) reserves, still actively taking place as of last Friday.
The now solid uptrend in Japanese economic indicators also continue to add to the upward pressures, leaving the BoJ with ever less wiggle-room.
FX Yen options implied volatility - 8.34%-8.93% - is running under historical levels, (i.e. they are considered "cheap") despite the increased Call buying, as of late.
Ultimately, what the BoJ will be forced to do here, and most importantly When(?) and to what extent, is still open to debate but two aspects of this issue became rather obvious;
1) At this point markets, in general, seem to maintain a complacent stance (see options pricing) regarding the significance and potential magnitude of a BoJ move;
2) This is a 30-year, $3+ Trillion Dollar short position which will have to be unwound (covered) in the event of a BoJ interest rate hike and as such, liquidity will be a major issue!
To illustrate the last point - above -, this was the recent EURJPY action following a rumor that the BoJ "may do something";
The central problem the Bank of Japan is facing at this moment, continued acceleration of rate (and thus, price) differentials relative to the other G-20 currencies. (I.e., The Yen price levels, alone, would not cause the same concerns.) On the top of it, China's PBC decided to dump massive amounts of Yen (and Euro) reserves, still actively taking place as of last Friday.
The now solid uptrend in Japanese economic indicators also continue to add to the upward pressures, leaving the BoJ with ever less wiggle-room.
FX Yen options implied volatility - 8.34%-8.93% - is running under historical levels, (i.e. they are considered "cheap") despite the increased Call buying, as of late.
Ultimately, what the BoJ will be forced to do here, and most importantly When(?) and to what extent, is still open to debate but two aspects of this issue became rather obvious;
1) At this point markets, in general, seem to maintain a complacent stance (see options pricing) regarding the significance and potential magnitude of a BoJ move;
2) This is a 30-year, $3+ Trillion Dollar short position which will have to be unwound (covered) in the event of a BoJ interest rate hike and as such, liquidity will be a major issue!
To illustrate the last point - above -, this was the recent EURJPY action following a rumor that the BoJ "may do something";
Note
Again, the most concerning factor for the Bank of Japan is the rate of acceleration in other (G-20) central bank rates relative to the (static) Japanese rate.
Note
So, just what could be meant by "liquidity will be a major issue!", in somewhat tangible terms? ...;Considering the different factors and the size and role of the CHF vs. the Yen, a best guess effort to project a reasonable expectation for volatility increase in the event of a BoJ rate hike would suggest a move in a properly balanced Yen currency basket of about 150%-200% times of that in the CHFJPY, experienced during the Swiss-Euro peg removal!. This, of course, is only a best guess effort and real world situations could wildly differ from this projection.
Probably one of the most important aspects to notice in this CHFJPY chart is a 1050 pip spike-back that took place during the move, at which time FX dealer spreads averaged 120 pips! (I.e. Just "being long" was not an entirely smooth ride either.)
Note
Correction;In the above chart the move is erroneously indicated as being "1500 pips" when in fact the whole move was 3500 pips, from the beginning to it's peak.
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