1. Market Structure & Patterns
• Bearish Structure:
The pair has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish trend. I follow structure first — it gives the most reliable roadmap before looking at patterns or indicators.
• Bearish Flags (Continuation Patterns):
These are rising channels within a downtrend, usually forming after a strong impulse drop. Think of them as “breathers” before price continues down.
Every flag here broke down, confirming that sellers are still in control after short pullbacks.
• Rejection Zones (Supply Areas):
Marked in pink, these zones are where price previously reversed sharply. Every time price returns to these levels, it shows hesitation or reversal, especially when followed by a bearish candle or wick rejection.
⸻
2. Strong Levels & Liquidity Zones
• Liquidity Zones:
Areas like 140.450 are key because price reacted strongly there in the past — either as a turning point or a fakeout. These zones often hold pending orders, so I mark them as targets for potential bounces or breakouts.
• Confluence of Structure + Liquidity:
When a strong level (like previous demand) lines up with a structural level (like a lower low), it becomes a high-probability target.
• Dynamic Resistance (Trendlines/Channels):
The upper trendline of the flag acted as a form of resistance. Once price broke below it and retested the area, it confirmed a potential continuation.
⸻
3. Fundamentals (Light Touch)
• USD Side:
Recent uncertainty around Fed rate cuts, inflation reports, and mixed labor data have caused the USD to fluctuate, but overall sentiment is leaning slightly dovish. This weakens the USD.
• JPY Side:
The Bank of Japan has started hinting at a possible shift away from ultra-loose policy, which could strengthen the Yen in the medium term.
• Macro Context:
If global risk sentiment turns negative (e.g., stocks fall or geopolitical tensions rise), safe-haven flows into JPY typically increase.
Together, these fundamentals support the technical bearish outlook on USDJPY in the short to mid term.
⸻
Final Thoughts
This setup is built on:
• Clean structure
• Pattern recognition
• Key zone reactions
• Light macro context
Patience and confirmation are key — I wait for price to reject zones and form clear price action (like bearish engulfing or strong wicks) before executing.
⸻
#USDJPY #ForexEducation #BearishSetup #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #TradingPatterns #FundamentalAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #LiquidityZones #PriceActionTrader
• Bearish Structure:
The pair has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish trend. I follow structure first — it gives the most reliable roadmap before looking at patterns or indicators.
• Bearish Flags (Continuation Patterns):
These are rising channels within a downtrend, usually forming after a strong impulse drop. Think of them as “breathers” before price continues down.
Every flag here broke down, confirming that sellers are still in control after short pullbacks.
• Rejection Zones (Supply Areas):
Marked in pink, these zones are where price previously reversed sharply. Every time price returns to these levels, it shows hesitation or reversal, especially when followed by a bearish candle or wick rejection.
⸻
2. Strong Levels & Liquidity Zones
• Liquidity Zones:
Areas like 140.450 are key because price reacted strongly there in the past — either as a turning point or a fakeout. These zones often hold pending orders, so I mark them as targets for potential bounces or breakouts.
• Confluence of Structure + Liquidity:
When a strong level (like previous demand) lines up with a structural level (like a lower low), it becomes a high-probability target.
• Dynamic Resistance (Trendlines/Channels):
The upper trendline of the flag acted as a form of resistance. Once price broke below it and retested the area, it confirmed a potential continuation.
⸻
3. Fundamentals (Light Touch)
• USD Side:
Recent uncertainty around Fed rate cuts, inflation reports, and mixed labor data have caused the USD to fluctuate, but overall sentiment is leaning slightly dovish. This weakens the USD.
• JPY Side:
The Bank of Japan has started hinting at a possible shift away from ultra-loose policy, which could strengthen the Yen in the medium term.
• Macro Context:
If global risk sentiment turns negative (e.g., stocks fall or geopolitical tensions rise), safe-haven flows into JPY typically increase.
Together, these fundamentals support the technical bearish outlook on USDJPY in the short to mid term.
⸻
Final Thoughts
This setup is built on:
• Clean structure
• Pattern recognition
• Key zone reactions
• Light macro context
Patience and confirmation are key — I wait for price to reject zones and form clear price action (like bearish engulfing or strong wicks) before executing.
⸻
#USDJPY #ForexEducation #BearishSetup #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #TradingPatterns #FundamentalAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #LiquidityZones #PriceActionTrader
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.