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USD/JPY: Bulls Charging Up — Bigger Upside in Sight!
Current View:
USD/JPY bounced strongly from 140.00 and bulls are aiming for a bigger breakout. Momentum is building, and if key support levels hold, we could see much higher prices soon.
🔥 Why We’re Bullish:
Strong rebound from 140.00 support.
Price pushing against the 144.00 resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
A break above 144.00 would unlock bigger upside potential.
Fundamentals (U.S. growth + possible BOJ disappointment) favor USD strength.
📈 Bullish Roadmap:
Level Action Next Target
144.00 Breakout and hold needed Move toward 144.881
144.881 (Important) If it holds as support, bullish continuation Rally towards 1M Pivot @ 149.266
149.266 If it holds as support, next move higher Push towards 1Y Pivot @ 152.9069
150.39–152.573 (Caution) 1M resistance zone — watch for possible pullbacks
If cleared: Full bullish extension Aim for Final Target: 155.135
🗓 Events to Watch:
BOJ Policy Meeting → Potential for yen weakness if BOJ disappoints.
U.S. GDP + Non-Farm Payrolls → Could boost USD strength.
⚡ Quick Visual Flow:
➡️ Break above 144.00 ➡️ Hold 144.881 as support ➡️ Target 149.266 ➡️ Break through resistance at 150.39–152.573 ➡️ Target 152.9069 ➡️ Final goal: 155.135
⚠️ Key Cautions:
150.39–152.573 is a major resistance area; expect possible profit-taking or heavy battles here.
If 144.881 fails to hold, short-term pullbacks to 140.00 could reappear — manage stops accordingly.
TL;DR:
✅ Bulls are strong.
✅ Watch 144.00 breakout and 144.881 support hold for bigger upside.
✅ Long-term targets: 149.266 → 152.9069 → 155.135, if major resistance breaks cleanly.
⚡ Stay updated on BOJ and U.S. data for confirmation!
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
USD/JPY: Bulls Charging Up — Bigger Upside in Sight!
Current View:
USD/JPY bounced strongly from 140.00 and bulls are aiming for a bigger breakout. Momentum is building, and if key support levels hold, we could see much higher prices soon.
🔥 Why We’re Bullish:
Strong rebound from 140.00 support.
Price pushing against the 144.00 resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
A break above 144.00 would unlock bigger upside potential.
Fundamentals (U.S. growth + possible BOJ disappointment) favor USD strength.
📈 Bullish Roadmap:
Level Action Next Target
144.00 Breakout and hold needed Move toward 144.881
144.881 (Important) If it holds as support, bullish continuation Rally towards 1M Pivot @ 149.266
149.266 If it holds as support, next move higher Push towards 1Y Pivot @ 152.9069
150.39–152.573 (Caution) 1M resistance zone — watch for possible pullbacks
If cleared: Full bullish extension Aim for Final Target: 155.135
🗓 Events to Watch:
BOJ Policy Meeting → Potential for yen weakness if BOJ disappoints.
U.S. GDP + Non-Farm Payrolls → Could boost USD strength.
⚡ Quick Visual Flow:
➡️ Break above 144.00 ➡️ Hold 144.881 as support ➡️ Target 149.266 ➡️ Break through resistance at 150.39–152.573 ➡️ Target 152.9069 ➡️ Final goal: 155.135
⚠️ Key Cautions:
150.39–152.573 is a major resistance area; expect possible profit-taking or heavy battles here.
If 144.881 fails to hold, short-term pullbacks to 140.00 could reappear — manage stops accordingly.
TL;DR:
✅ Bulls are strong.
✅ Watch 144.00 breakout and 144.881 support hold for bigger upside.
✅ Long-term targets: 149.266 → 152.9069 → 155.135, if major resistance breaks cleanly.
⚡ Stay updated on BOJ and U.S. data for confirmation!
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Note
FX Cheat Sheet for April 28 – May 2, 2025
This week, global markets will be watching key events such as the Bank of Japan's policy decision, Canadian GDP data, and U.S. employment figures. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and shifting economic conditions will likely continue to influence the major currencies.
Key Developments
U.S.-China Trade Talks: Positive signals from China, indicating a possible tariff suspension on U.S. goods, have boosted market sentiment, making risk assets more attractive.
U.S. Politics: President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve Chairman put pressure on the U.S. dollar, but comments later from Trump calmed market fears.
Bank of Japan: Expectations are high for a potential rate hike at the BOJ meeting on May 1, which could strengthen the Japanese Yen.
U.S.-Canada Relations: Trump’s threats of tariffs on Canadian auto exports have created tensions, which may put the Canadian Dollar at risk.
Central Bank Actions & Commentary
Federal Reserve (Fed): Fed officials have shown readiness to cut rates if tariffs negatively impact employment. Markets are unsure about the timing of any rate cuts.
Bank of England (BOE): The BOE remains cautious due to global trade effects, and rate cuts are still possible.
European Central Bank (ECB): The ECB continues a dovish stance, with the possibility of future rate cuts if economic conditions do not improve.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Market expectations are high for a potential rate hike at the BOJ’s meeting this week.
Key Economic Data
U.S.: Important data releases include the ADP Employment Change and Non-Farm Payrolls, which will give insight into the resilience of the U.S. economy.
Eurozone: Weak PMI data indicates contraction in both manufacturing and services, keeping the euro under pressure.
Asia-Pacific: China’s Manufacturing PMI (April 28) and Australia’s CPI (April 29) will be key in shaping the outlook for the region.
Currency Outlook – Strength Likely to Weak Likely
Currency Outlook Visual Rating
Japanese Yen (JPY) Strong, bolstered by rate hike expectations and economic stability 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
U.S. Dollar (USD) Moderate strength, with potential downward pressure due to Fed rate cuts speculation🌟🌟🌟🌟
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Weakened, risk due to political uncertainty and trade tensions with the U.S. 🌟🌟🌟
Euro (EUR) Weak, continuing economic underperformance and ECB’s dovish stance 🌟🌟
British Pound (GBP) Moderate strength, sensitive to global risk sentiment and mixed economic signals 🌟🌟🌟
Trading Recommendations:
JPY (Japanese Yen): Consider long positions ahead of the BOJ rate decision on May 1. The Yen could appreciate against weaker currencies like the Euro and Swiss Franc.
USD (U.S. Dollar): Stay alert around the Non-Farm Payrolls and ADP Employment Change data. Weak data could lead to a shift towards risk assets.
AUD/NZD: These currencies will likely remain volatile, so adjust positions based on any U.S.-China trade updates.
CAD (Canadian Dollar): Avoid excessive exposure to CAD due to political and trade uncertainties.
Market Scenarios
Base Case: The Bank of Japan raises rates, strengthening JPY. U.S. growth proves resilient, while U.S.-China trade tensions ease. This would benefit risk assets.
Risk Scenario: Weak U.S. labor data or renewed trade tensions lead to a risk-off environment, boosting safe-haven currencies like JPY, USD, and CHF.
Upside Scenario: A positive breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks or strong U.S. economic data combined with a hawkish BOJ stance would trigger a global risk rally.
Trade active
Note
📈 USD/JPY Bullish Summary1. U.S. Data Stays Strong
Resilient PMIs and jobs = USD support
2. BOJ Hawkish But Limited
Rate hike possible, but impact likely muted
3. Risk Appetite Up
Risk-on = JPY weakens faster than USD
4. Yield Gap Still Wide
Higher U.S. yields = favor USD
🌟 Quick Visual 🌟
Driver USD JPY USD/JPY
U.S. Strength ➕ ➖ ➕ Higher
BOJ Caution ➖ ➕ ➕ Higher
Risk-On Mood ➖ ➖➖ ➕ Higher
Yield Spread ➕ ➖ ➕ Higher
🎯 Bottom Line:
Still bullish USD/JPY — dips = chances to buy.
Note
📈 FX Weekly Recap: April 28 – May 2, 2025(Pro-Bullish USD Perspective)
🔹 USD Resilience Regains Traction
After a shaky start, the dollar bounced back with conviction, bolstered by solid U.S. data, hawkish positioning, and renewed global demand for safety and yield. The greenback closed the week firm across majors — with USD/JPY in particular regaining upside momentum.
🔑 Key Drivers Supporting the USD
📊 ISM Manufacturing PMI: A surprise beat at 49.2 jolted markets, sharply reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts and reviving USD momentum.
📈 JOLTs Job Openings: Surged to 8.48M (vs. 8.62M prior), reinforcing labor market tightness and Fed patience.
👷♂️ NFP & Labor Strength: April’s 177K job gain and stable wages indicate the U.S. economy remains resilient — bullish for USD.
🛡️ Safe-Haven Demand: Hawkish trade talk (tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum) triggered a mild risk-off tone that benefited the dollar.
🤝 Constructive Global Trade Engagement: U.S. diplomacy with India, Japan, Korea, and the EU signals economic leadership, reinforcing dollar demand globally.
💹 FX Pair Moves
EUR/USD: Euro faded as U.S. data outperformed; inflation in Europe did little to inspire hawks.
GBP/USD: Pound under pressure from soft credit conditions; underperformed against the dollar.
USD/CAD: Oil strength propped up CAD, but USD’s macro strength kept the pair rangebound.
USD/CHF: Swissie weakened on risk flows and U.S. data upside.
USD/JPY:
🟢 Bullish Break Resumes — The strong U.S. data and narrowing Fed-BoJ divergence are reinvigorating USD/JPY upside.
🧭 With U.S. yields stabilizing and no clear intervention ceiling from Japan, dips are increasingly viewed as buying opportunities.
📐 The pair is eyeing retests of previous highs, supported by both macro fundamentals and relative rate differentials.
🧭 Strategic Takeaway
The U.S. dollar is reasserting control. With resilient growth, sticky inflation, and no imminent Fed easing, USD has scope to extend gains — particularly vs. low-yielders like the JPY. USD/JPY remains a standout long, with potential to challenge multi-decade highs as Japan stays dovish and U.S. data surprises to the upside.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.