Heavy Dollar news day tomorrow
What an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations.
There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings) followed by the Fed rate decision at 6pm. The second is whether or not the BoJ have any other tools to alleviate the Yen weakness other than simply intervening like we've seen before.
Let's tackle the new first. I wouldn't expect ADP to cause much of a stir given the Fed decision always overshadows anything else, and if the Fed holds at 5.50%, then I wouldn't expect anything other than a small bump. Given the move we've seen today I think some form of relax to happen, possibly with a slight downward trajectory for profit taking....possibly we just slide a little lower into the end of the week?
As for the BoJ, I'm nervous above 150.
I'll take it a day at a time above here and be mindful of any macro factors that change the longer term outlook for either the Dollar or Yen. But it seems like the only mechanism Japan has to stop the devaluation is to inject a whole bunch of money into buying the Yen.
Be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings) followed by the Fed rate decision at 6pm. The second is whether or not the BoJ have any other tools to alleviate the Yen weakness other than simply intervening like we've seen before.
Let's tackle the new first. I wouldn't expect ADP to cause much of a stir given the Fed decision always overshadows anything else, and if the Fed holds at 5.50%, then I wouldn't expect anything other than a small bump. Given the move we've seen today I think some form of relax to happen, possibly with a slight downward trajectory for profit taking....possibly we just slide a little lower into the end of the week?
As for the BoJ, I'm nervous above 150.
I'll take it a day at a time above here and be mindful of any macro factors that change the longer term outlook for either the Dollar or Yen. But it seems like the only mechanism Japan has to stop the devaluation is to inject a whole bunch of money into buying the Yen.
Be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
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