USDJPY...Continues to decline....
Based on the analysis of USDJPY's technical setup, here's a structured trade plan:
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### *USDJPY Short Trade Plan*
*Trigger:* Consolidation below 148.90 (e.g., closing below on 4H/daily chart).
*Entry:* After confirmed breakdown, ideally with a retest of 148.90 as resistance.
*Target:* 147.00 (190-pip downside).
*Stop Loss:* 50-70 pips above entry (e.g., 149.40–149.60 to account for volatility).
*Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:3 to 1:4 (favorable).
---
### *Key Technical Rationale*
1. *Price Action:*
- Rejection from 151.00 resistance (bearish structure).
- Breakdown below 148.90 support confirms bearish continuation.
2. *Indicators:*
- *Alligator:* Lips (green) crossing below Jaw (blue) signals trend reversal.
- *MACD:* Cross below 0-line confirms bearish momentum acceleration.
3. *Target Validation:*
- 147.00 aligns with prior swing lows and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% retracement from recent rally).
---
### *Risks to Consider*
- *False Breakdown:* Watch for a swift reclaim of 148.90 (stop hunt).
- *BoJ Intervention:* Risk of yen-buying intervention if JPY weakens sharply.
- *Upcoming Data:* U.S. CPI/Jobs data or BoJ policy shifts could disrupt the setup.
---
### *Execution Tips*
- Wait for *price confirmation* (e.g., two consecutive closes below 148.90).
- Monitor MACD histogram for strengthening bearish momentum.
- Hedge with a long JPY basket (e.g., short AUDJPY/GBPJPY) to diversify risk.
---
*Final Note:* This trade aligns with bearish technicals, but stay agile given macro risks. Adjust stops if fundamentals shift.
---
### *USDJPY Short Trade Plan*
*Trigger:* Consolidation below 148.90 (e.g., closing below on 4H/daily chart).
*Entry:* After confirmed breakdown, ideally with a retest of 148.90 as resistance.
*Target:* 147.00 (190-pip downside).
*Stop Loss:* 50-70 pips above entry (e.g., 149.40–149.60 to account for volatility).
*Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:3 to 1:4 (favorable).
---
### *Key Technical Rationale*
1. *Price Action:*
- Rejection from 151.00 resistance (bearish structure).
- Breakdown below 148.90 support confirms bearish continuation.
2. *Indicators:*
- *Alligator:* Lips (green) crossing below Jaw (blue) signals trend reversal.
- *MACD:* Cross below 0-line confirms bearish momentum acceleration.
3. *Target Validation:*
- 147.00 aligns with prior swing lows and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% retracement from recent rally).
---
### *Risks to Consider*
- *False Breakdown:* Watch for a swift reclaim of 148.90 (stop hunt).
- *BoJ Intervention:* Risk of yen-buying intervention if JPY weakens sharply.
- *Upcoming Data:* U.S. CPI/Jobs data or BoJ policy shifts could disrupt the setup.
---
### *Execution Tips*
- Wait for *price confirmation* (e.g., two consecutive closes below 148.90).
- Monitor MACD histogram for strengthening bearish momentum.
- Hedge with a long JPY basket (e.g., short AUDJPY/GBPJPY) to diversify risk.
---
*Final Note:* This trade aligns with bearish technicals, but stay agile given macro risks. Adjust stops if fundamentals shift.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.