PANIC CYCLE ON H1 (LONG)
On the hourly time-frame (H1) we identify a common panic cycle construction that occur repeatedly in market action in different time units of days, weeks and even minutes.
The beginning point is marked on the chart as origin, price made a first bottom and completed the top at 161.951 level. The correction ended at 151.937 which has acted as a strong resistance in the past making a 10.014 points decline to complete the cycle.
The time from origin to top was 589 hours, the correction took 386 hours for a total of 975 hours completing the cycle. The two time measurements for the bull and bear sides 589 and 386 are in a ratio of 3 : 2 or a Phi progression. The vertical measurement (price) is 1001.4 points and total time is (589 + 386) = 975 hours, this puts the containment structure of the cycle as (1001.4 X 975), a variation of a perfect 987 X 987 square.
For our projection:
1. We expect that since the panic cycle is completed a counter trend usually follows that ends at the (1/Phi) or 2/3rd division. From the low at 151.937 the 2/3rd subdivision will end at (151.937 + 10.014 * 2/3) = 158.613 level. Also given that the cycle has a dominant variation of (1/Phi) = 589 units we will have the level (151.937 + 5.89) = 157.827. It can be noticed that this level (157.827) is the point where the second steep decline commenced, it is also the point at origin. That gives us a confluence zone between 157.827 and 158.613 to watch as first resistance/TP in a counter swing.
2. Given that the 151.937 level is a strong support we expect it to hold for our long term projection of 175 / 184 price level. In the event that this support level breaks we expect the same price range (+5.89 to +6.67) points decline from 151.937.
Some examples of Panic Cycles in the past:
Trade safe, good luck
The beginning point is marked on the chart as origin, price made a first bottom and completed the top at 161.951 level. The correction ended at 151.937 which has acted as a strong resistance in the past making a 10.014 points decline to complete the cycle.
The time from origin to top was 589 hours, the correction took 386 hours for a total of 975 hours completing the cycle. The two time measurements for the bull and bear sides 589 and 386 are in a ratio of 3 : 2 or a Phi progression. The vertical measurement (price) is 1001.4 points and total time is (589 + 386) = 975 hours, this puts the containment structure of the cycle as (1001.4 X 975), a variation of a perfect 987 X 987 square.
For our projection:
1. We expect that since the panic cycle is completed a counter trend usually follows that ends at the (1/Phi) or 2/3rd division. From the low at 151.937 the 2/3rd subdivision will end at (151.937 + 10.014 * 2/3) = 158.613 level. Also given that the cycle has a dominant variation of (1/Phi) = 589 units we will have the level (151.937 + 5.89) = 157.827. It can be noticed that this level (157.827) is the point where the second steep decline commenced, it is also the point at origin. That gives us a confluence zone between 157.827 and 158.613 to watch as first resistance/TP in a counter swing.
2. Given that the 151.937 level is a strong support we expect it to hold for our long term projection of 175 / 184 price level. In the event that this support level breaks we expect the same price range (+5.89 to +6.67) points decline from 151.937.
Some examples of Panic Cycles in the past:
Trade safe, good luck
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