BOJ vs Fed: diverging rate paths could weigh on USDJPY
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The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow, but the most likely course of action will be rate increases, potentially reaching 1% by the end of the year from the current 0.5%. The Federal Reserve is also expected to hold rates tomorrow. However, with the US economy showing signs of softness, trade tariffs weighing on consumers, and sentiment at very low levels, the Fed is likely to keep rates steady. If the market gets its way, there could be up to three Fed rate cuts before the end of the year.
The combination of strong inflation and high wage growth in Japan versus moderating US economic growth suggests that the dollar-yen pair could continue to trade lower. The short-term trend remains bearish below the swing high of 151.29 from March 3, when rates reached 0.5%.
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