USDJPY Trade Idea: Bearish Flag Breakdown and Key Technical Levels
Trade Setup Overview
Pattern Identified: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend.
Key Resistance: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance.
Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag's lower boundary near 149.300.
Targets:
TP1: 148.30 (100 pips, aligns with the flag's measured move).
TP2: 146.60 (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level).
Stop Loss: 150.00 (70 pips risk, above the flag's upper boundary and recent swing high).
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Critical Technical Factors
1. Bearish Flag Dynamics:
The flag's "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of ~148.30 (TP1).
A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling.
2. Confluence with Moving Averages:
The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend.
A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift.
3. Key Support Levels:
148.30: Near-term target (previous swing low).
146.60: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally).
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Risk Management
Risk-Reward Ratio:
TP1: 1:1.4 (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward).
TP2: 1:3.8 (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward).
Adjust Stops: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains.
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Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor
1. Fed Policy: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness.
2. BOJ Intervention: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00.
3. Risk Sentiment: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows).
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Execution Plan
Sell Entry: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary).
TP1: 148.30 (partial profit-taking).
TP2: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum).
Stop Loss: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns).
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Your trade plan is now structured and polished for sharing. Let me know if you need any tweaks!
Trade Setup Overview
Pattern Identified: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend.
Key Resistance: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance.
Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag's lower boundary near 149.300.
Targets:
TP1: 148.30 (100 pips, aligns with the flag's measured move).
TP2: 146.60 (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level).
Stop Loss: 150.00 (70 pips risk, above the flag's upper boundary and recent swing high).
---
Critical Technical Factors
1. Bearish Flag Dynamics:
The flag's "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of ~148.30 (TP1).
A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling.
2. Confluence with Moving Averages:
The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend.
A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift.
3. Key Support Levels:
148.30: Near-term target (previous swing low).
146.60: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally).
---
Risk Management
Risk-Reward Ratio:
TP1: 1:1.4 (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward).
TP2: 1:3.8 (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward).
Adjust Stops: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains.
---
Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor
1. Fed Policy: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness.
2. BOJ Intervention: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00.
3. Risk Sentiment: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows).
---
Execution Plan
Sell Entry: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary).
TP1: 148.30 (partial profit-taking).
TP2: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum).
Stop Loss: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns).
---
Your trade plan is now structured and polished for sharing. Let me know if you need any tweaks!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.