USD/JPY rebounded off key support yesterday at 140.25-141.02- a region defined by the December low, the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance, and the objective yearly open. Looking for a reaction off this mark with the Fed on tap later today.

Initial resistance 143.31 backed by near-term bearish invalidation at 145.62-146.42. A breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway / more significant low is in place.

A break below this key threshold would threaten downtrend resumption with subsequent support objectives eyed at 137.91 and 137.21.

Markets are pricing a greater than 60% chance of a 50bps cut- we'll be looking for some volatile here later today. Battle lines drawn.

Michael Boutros
MBForex
Trend Analysis

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