USDJPY PLAN – Will FOMC Be the Next Big Catalyst?
💬 After several sessions of sideways movement, USDJPY is showing signs of a potential breakout, supported by both technical signals and macro fundamentals. As the FOMC meeting approaches, the market is poised for a major shift — making this the perfect time to prepare actionable trade plans.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary Trend: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader downtrend – currently testing the 200 EMA on H2.
EMAs in use: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red) – effective dynamic support/resistance indicators.
Key Resistance Levels:
145.35: Major confluence zone with 0.618 Fibonacci and trendline resistance.
146.11 – 147.20: Previous highs and Fibonacci extension targets.
Key Support Zones:
144.61: EMA200 acting as immediate pressure point.
143.43 – 143.02: Crucial demand zone with strong reaction expected on pullback.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
FOMC Outlook: With recent CPI data softening and labor numbers moderating, markets anticipate a hold on rates. However, any hawkish tone from Chair Powell could trigger a sharp bullish move on USDJPY.
BOJ’s Dovish Stance: The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, showing no clear intent to hike rates. This weakens the Yen and supports mid-term upward momentum for USDJPY.
Interest Rate Differentials & Carry Trade Flows continue to drive volatility and directional bias in this pair.
🎯 TRADE SETUP SUGGESTION
If price breaks and sustains above 144.61 (EMA200): look to BUY on pullback toward 144.15–144.20, targeting 145.35 and 146.11.
If price gets rejected at 145.35: consider a short-term SELL toward 144.00 – 143.43 for a corrective leg.
⚠️ STRATEGY NOTE:
Avoid entering right at the time of the FOMC release. Wait for post-event confirmation. Prioritize strong breakouts or rejections, and manage risk carefully under volatile conditions.
💬 After several sessions of sideways movement, USDJPY is showing signs of a potential breakout, supported by both technical signals and macro fundamentals. As the FOMC meeting approaches, the market is poised for a major shift — making this the perfect time to prepare actionable trade plans.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary Trend: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader downtrend – currently testing the 200 EMA on H2.
EMAs in use: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red) – effective dynamic support/resistance indicators.
Key Resistance Levels:
145.35: Major confluence zone with 0.618 Fibonacci and trendline resistance.
146.11 – 147.20: Previous highs and Fibonacci extension targets.
Key Support Zones:
144.61: EMA200 acting as immediate pressure point.
143.43 – 143.02: Crucial demand zone with strong reaction expected on pullback.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
FOMC Outlook: With recent CPI data softening and labor numbers moderating, markets anticipate a hold on rates. However, any hawkish tone from Chair Powell could trigger a sharp bullish move on USDJPY.
BOJ’s Dovish Stance: The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, showing no clear intent to hike rates. This weakens the Yen and supports mid-term upward momentum for USDJPY.
Interest Rate Differentials & Carry Trade Flows continue to drive volatility and directional bias in this pair.
🎯 TRADE SETUP SUGGESTION
If price breaks and sustains above 144.61 (EMA200): look to BUY on pullback toward 144.15–144.20, targeting 145.35 and 146.11.
If price gets rejected at 145.35: consider a short-term SELL toward 144.00 – 143.43 for a corrective leg.
⚠️ STRATEGY NOTE:
Avoid entering right at the time of the FOMC release. Wait for post-event confirmation. Prioritize strong breakouts or rejections, and manage risk carefully under volatile conditions.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.