Alright degenerates, here’s your clean macro breakdown.
Pair with strongest directional bias right now: USD/JPY
Bias: SHORT USD/JPY (Bearish USD / Bullish JPY)
WHY? Because the U.S. just tripped over its own tariffs and dragged the dollar with it.
1. U.S. melting down:
• Trump went full trade-war goblin: 10% base tariffs on everything, up to 100% on certain countries.
• Fed now cornered — inflation UP, growth DOWN = stagflation vibes.
• Powell already out here looking like he wants to cut rates yesterday.
• S&P nuked -4.9%, $2.5 trillion gone in a day. This is not a drill.
2. Japan not looking great, but better than the U.S.:
• BOJ possibly delaying hikes, but inflation’s been above 2% for 3 years.
• Tokyo CPI still hot.
• Plus: classic safe-haven flow kicking in thanks to all the macro chaos.
• Yen doing what yen does—acting like gold in a suit.
3. Geopolitical backdrop:
• EU & Japan both throwing shade at U.S. tariffs.
• Retaliation incoming? Risk-off vibes continue.
• Markets shifting to JPY like it’s 2020 all over again.
4. Central Bank energy:
• Fed: Shaky, reactive, duck-and-cover mode.
• BOJ: Holding back, but not out. Inflation gives them ammo.
⸻
TL;DR:
• USD is getting wrecked by its own government.
• JPY benefiting from safe-haven flows + stable inflation.
• Every major factor (macro, policy, geopolitics, sentiment) leans one way.
• USD/JPY short looks clean AF from a fundamental standpoint.
Not financial advice. I don’t care what you do. Just don’t long this trash.
Now go slap some fibs and RSI on this thing and pretend you knew it all along.
Pair with strongest directional bias right now: USD/JPY
Bias: SHORT USD/JPY (Bearish USD / Bullish JPY)
WHY? Because the U.S. just tripped over its own tariffs and dragged the dollar with it.
1. U.S. melting down:
• Trump went full trade-war goblin: 10% base tariffs on everything, up to 100% on certain countries.
• Fed now cornered — inflation UP, growth DOWN = stagflation vibes.
• Powell already out here looking like he wants to cut rates yesterday.
• S&P nuked -4.9%, $2.5 trillion gone in a day. This is not a drill.
2. Japan not looking great, but better than the U.S.:
• BOJ possibly delaying hikes, but inflation’s been above 2% for 3 years.
• Tokyo CPI still hot.
• Plus: classic safe-haven flow kicking in thanks to all the macro chaos.
• Yen doing what yen does—acting like gold in a suit.
3. Geopolitical backdrop:
• EU & Japan both throwing shade at U.S. tariffs.
• Retaliation incoming? Risk-off vibes continue.
• Markets shifting to JPY like it’s 2020 all over again.
4. Central Bank energy:
• Fed: Shaky, reactive, duck-and-cover mode.
• BOJ: Holding back, but not out. Inflation gives them ammo.
⸻
TL;DR:
• USD is getting wrecked by its own government.
• JPY benefiting from safe-haven flows + stable inflation.
• Every major factor (macro, policy, geopolitics, sentiment) leans one way.
• USD/JPY short looks clean AF from a fundamental standpoint.
Not financial advice. I don’t care what you do. Just don’t long this trash.
Now go slap some fibs and RSI on this thing and pretend you knew it all along.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.