Long Peso Because Technicals and Election
Preemptive note: This is non partisan analysis. Please do not waste my time (or yours) by saying anything about the polls not being accurate. That's self-indulging conspiracy theories that have no basis in any fact. Now onto the reasonings.
1) Price currently sitting at the .618 fib retrace. You can see this clearly on the chart. This is a level to look for a reversal. A short is thus worth it in terms of risk reward. Yes, the peso is right above this level as I am writing this, but I have absolute full-faith that this level (or the .764 retrace) will hold.
2) Hillary is still likely going to win because of demographics and how the electoral college works. The Peso's weakening in the last few days against the dollar is solely because of the market adjusting its expectations from a sure Clinton victory to more of a "meh" perspective.
Possible problems with this: Trump winning or the Fed inexplicably does not raise rates. I'm willing to accept those as unlikely risks and thus take the trade
1) Price currently sitting at the .618 fib retrace. You can see this clearly on the chart. This is a level to look for a reversal. A short is thus worth it in terms of risk reward. Yes, the peso is right above this level as I am writing this, but I have absolute full-faith that this level (or the .764 retrace) will hold.
2) Hillary is still likely going to win because of demographics and how the electoral college works. The Peso's weakening in the last few days against the dollar is solely because of the market adjusting its expectations from a sure Clinton victory to more of a "meh" perspective.
Possible problems with this: Trump winning or the Fed inexplicably does not raise rates. I'm willing to accept those as unlikely risks and thus take the trade
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