Technical Portrait for USDNOK
Updated
Here we are tracking the beginning of a -20% swing in USDNOK as we enter into the final Quarter of 2019. This is against the trend, start small, look to scale in, remain nimble and when it starts working we can go large.
On the Fundamentals side, Norges raising rates 25bp earlier in the month to 1.50%, rate markets are now pricing another hike in Q120 despite any downward revisions in the report. The risks are largely broad based and inline with global risks. Labour is still there in Norway and can tighten even further which will provide the ebb and flow of the dollar devaluation leg.
From the technicals, we are tracking the ending of a 5th wave pattern in a large ABC sequence that began in 2008. Profit taking will occur with a zig zag towards 7.310x. Reassessment of this view is needed above the highs in Sept at 9.165x.
Good luck to all those trading USDNOK
On the Fundamentals side, Norges raising rates 25bp earlier in the month to 1.50%, rate markets are now pricing another hike in Q120 despite any downward revisions in the report. The risks are largely broad based and inline with global risks. Labour is still there in Norway and can tighten even further which will provide the ebb and flow of the dollar devaluation leg.
From the technicals, we are tracking the ending of a 5th wave pattern in a large ABC sequence that began in 2008. Profit taking will occur with a zig zag towards 7.310x. Reassessment of this view is needed above the highs in Sept at 9.165x.
Good luck to all those trading USDNOK
Note
A very bearish close to the week...I will update this chart over the weekend as we are aligning for a very large move to the downside.
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