04 DEC 2014 - Update:
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the
USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).
The following chart is looking at a dual view:
1 - Top isUSDJPY
and
2 - Bottom isUSDJPY tempered by $ES.
The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting thatUSDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.
For instance, we have recently looked at:
1 - The possible topping in
USDRUB:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/mly72Nnu/ )
2 - The potential near-reversal in
XAUUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/bmSQEDux/ )
3 - A technical recovery in
GBPUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/ )
4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in
USDCAD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/TZWtIyLW/ )
5 - A near-complete target-hit in
USDCHF at TG-Hi:
Source: tradingview.com/v/cFdnLaJP/ )
6 - A pending 5th wave completion in
EURUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/7YuRvla8/ )
7 - And a similar
AUDUSD geometric completion in AUDUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/xbIj5UD5/ )
OVERALL:
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening
USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.
Most recently, the
ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.
tradingview.com/v/ffEGZOy2/
Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
00000
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the
USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).The following chart is looking at a dual view:
1 - Top is
USDJPY and
2 - Bottom is
USDJPY tempered by $ES. The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that
USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses. For instance, we have recently looked at:
1 - The possible topping in
USDRUB:(Source: tradingview.com/v/mly72Nnu/ )
2 - The potential near-reversal in
XAUUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/bmSQEDux/ )
3 - A technical recovery in
GBPUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/ )
4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in
USDCAD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/TZWtIyLW/ )
5 - A near-complete target-hit in
USDCHF at TG-Hi:Source: tradingview.com/v/cFdnLaJP/ )
6 - A pending 5th wave completion in
EURUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/7YuRvla8/ )
7 - And a similar
AUDUSD geometric completion in AUDUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/xbIj5UD5/ )
OVERALL:
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening
USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes. Most recently, the
ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.tradingview.com/v/ffEGZOy2/
Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
00000
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.