Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The ruble is under the spotlight as Russian banks prepare to request a bailout amid a growing wave of loan defaults.
1. Russian banks falter behind the scenes
Although the Central Bank of Russia maintains a narrative of stability, the actual state of the financial system could be far more fragile. According to Bloomberg, several senior executives at major banks privately acknowledge that default levels are much higher than what is reflected in official data. This discrepancy has led at least three systemically important banks to consider requesting a bailout in 2026.
The concern is significant: these institutions are so large that their collapse could trigger contagion across the entire Russian financial system—just as it did in 2017 with the collapse of Otkritie, Promsvyazbank, and B&N Bank, which required a rescue exceeding one trillion rubles.
2. Secret meetings and emergency plans
Since late June, leading banks in Russia have held discreet meetings to explore how they might jointly approach the Central Bank with a formal request for assistance, should defaults continue to rise. The progressive deterioration of their balance sheets and mounting macroeconomic pressure are accelerating the preparation of this potential rescue plan. Although no official request has been made, the very fact that such discussions are taking place underscores the growing urgency within the sector.
3. The impact of war: inflation, high rates, and delinquency
The roots of this new crisis lie in the ongoing military conflict. The war effort has triggered uncontrolled inflation, forcing the Central Bank to raise interest rates above 20% in an attempt to stabilize the economy. However, this restrictive monetary policy has sharply increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers alike, leading to a surge in loan defaults.
This domino effect has undermined the credit quality of banking assets. While official figures do not yet reflect the full extent of the problem, insiders describe the situation as both “concerning and structural.”
4. Nabiullina caught between the official narrative and containment measures
Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, has sought to calm markets by stating that “the banking system is well capitalized.” However, recent actions by the central bank partially contradict this stance: it has temporarily allowed banks to operate with lower capital ratios—a relief measure that implicitly acknowledges serious vulnerabilities in the sector.
5. Sberbank acknowledges a challenging environment
Even at Sberbank, the country’s largest and state-controlled bank, CEO Herman Gref admitted that “it’s clearly not going to be easy.” While he expressed confidence in the sector’s ability to weather the storm, his remarks reflect the mounting tension among Russia’s top financial players.
USD/RUB Analysis: Between Apparent Stability and Systemic Risk
Fundamental Outlook
The deterioration of Russian bank balance sheets—combined with an economy under stress from the war effort, elevated inflation, and interest rates above 20%—creates a fragile backdrop for the ruble. Although the financial system appears stable on the surface, the potential for a bailout in 2026 points to deeper structural issues that may eventually surface in the currency market.
So far, the ruble has shown relative strength, trading around 77–78 RUB per dollar—well below the weakest levels seen in the aftermath of the war’s onset. However, this apparent stability could be short-lived if the market begins to price in the fiscal and monetary impact of large-scale bank bailouts. Moreover, the ruble remains isolated from international markets, with low liquidity and volatility artificially suppressed by capital controls, preventing a true market-based valuation.
Technical Outlook
The ruble has regained ground against the US dollar over the past year, currently trading within a range between 76.80 and 79 RUB/USD. The point of control lies near the current price at 77.73, with a heavily concentrated volume area.
Resistance: 80.4184 RUB
Support: 76.7918 RUB (May 2023 low)
A trend reversal would require a clear break above the first resistance and a move toward the 85 RUB zone. The RSI is currently neutral, slightly oversold at 48.19%. Meanwhile, the MACD and its signal line remain below the histogram but are nearing a crossover, suggesting a possible bullish movement for the dollar against the ruble—especially if the aforementioned fundamentals materialize.
Conclusion
Russia’s banking sector is facing a silent crisis, marked by rising defaults and deteriorating balance sheets, while behind-the-scenes meetings multiply in preparation for a potential bailout in 2026. Although the Central Bank maintains a stable narrative, its actions reflect growing stress in the financial system.
Against this backdrop, the ruble—currently trading around 77–78 per dollar—may come under pressure if the situation worsens. The currency’s apparent stability masks systemic risks that have yet to be fully priced in by the market.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
The ruble is under the spotlight as Russian banks prepare to request a bailout amid a growing wave of loan defaults.
1. Russian banks falter behind the scenes
Although the Central Bank of Russia maintains a narrative of stability, the actual state of the financial system could be far more fragile. According to Bloomberg, several senior executives at major banks privately acknowledge that default levels are much higher than what is reflected in official data. This discrepancy has led at least three systemically important banks to consider requesting a bailout in 2026.
The concern is significant: these institutions are so large that their collapse could trigger contagion across the entire Russian financial system—just as it did in 2017 with the collapse of Otkritie, Promsvyazbank, and B&N Bank, which required a rescue exceeding one trillion rubles.
2. Secret meetings and emergency plans
Since late June, leading banks in Russia have held discreet meetings to explore how they might jointly approach the Central Bank with a formal request for assistance, should defaults continue to rise. The progressive deterioration of their balance sheets and mounting macroeconomic pressure are accelerating the preparation of this potential rescue plan. Although no official request has been made, the very fact that such discussions are taking place underscores the growing urgency within the sector.
3. The impact of war: inflation, high rates, and delinquency
The roots of this new crisis lie in the ongoing military conflict. The war effort has triggered uncontrolled inflation, forcing the Central Bank to raise interest rates above 20% in an attempt to stabilize the economy. However, this restrictive monetary policy has sharply increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers alike, leading to a surge in loan defaults.
This domino effect has undermined the credit quality of banking assets. While official figures do not yet reflect the full extent of the problem, insiders describe the situation as both “concerning and structural.”
4. Nabiullina caught between the official narrative and containment measures
Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, has sought to calm markets by stating that “the banking system is well capitalized.” However, recent actions by the central bank partially contradict this stance: it has temporarily allowed banks to operate with lower capital ratios—a relief measure that implicitly acknowledges serious vulnerabilities in the sector.
5. Sberbank acknowledges a challenging environment
Even at Sberbank, the country’s largest and state-controlled bank, CEO Herman Gref admitted that “it’s clearly not going to be easy.” While he expressed confidence in the sector’s ability to weather the storm, his remarks reflect the mounting tension among Russia’s top financial players.
USD/RUB Analysis: Between Apparent Stability and Systemic Risk
Fundamental Outlook
The deterioration of Russian bank balance sheets—combined with an economy under stress from the war effort, elevated inflation, and interest rates above 20%—creates a fragile backdrop for the ruble. Although the financial system appears stable on the surface, the potential for a bailout in 2026 points to deeper structural issues that may eventually surface in the currency market.
So far, the ruble has shown relative strength, trading around 77–78 RUB per dollar—well below the weakest levels seen in the aftermath of the war’s onset. However, this apparent stability could be short-lived if the market begins to price in the fiscal and monetary impact of large-scale bank bailouts. Moreover, the ruble remains isolated from international markets, with low liquidity and volatility artificially suppressed by capital controls, preventing a true market-based valuation.
Technical Outlook
The ruble has regained ground against the US dollar over the past year, currently trading within a range between 76.80 and 79 RUB/USD. The point of control lies near the current price at 77.73, with a heavily concentrated volume area.
Resistance: 80.4184 RUB
Support: 76.7918 RUB (May 2023 low)
A trend reversal would require a clear break above the first resistance and a move toward the 85 RUB zone. The RSI is currently neutral, slightly oversold at 48.19%. Meanwhile, the MACD and its signal line remain below the histogram but are nearing a crossover, suggesting a possible bullish movement for the dollar against the ruble—especially if the aforementioned fundamentals materialize.
Conclusion
Russia’s banking sector is facing a silent crisis, marked by rising defaults and deteriorating balance sheets, while behind-the-scenes meetings multiply in preparation for a potential bailout in 2026. Although the Central Bank maintains a stable narrative, its actions reflect growing stress in the financial system.
Against this backdrop, the ruble—currently trading around 77–78 per dollar—may come under pressure if the situation worsens. The currency’s apparent stability masks systemic risks that have yet to be fully priced in by the market.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.