Stablecoin Dominance Tipping Point
I see two possible scenarios playing out:
The Bullish Scenario
The dominance goes lower and respects the current downtrend. This could either bounce off roughly 6% (this area has seen some interesting patterns in the chart) or just continue collapsing down. This would be bullish depending on if we don't have much trouble clearing the 5.8-6% range.
The Bearish Scenario
We break the current downtrend by going up to 7.5% or above in the next 2-3 weeks, at which point I think that worst case we would test somewhere around 8.15%. This would be short to slightly medium-term bearish at the worst in my opinion.
I lean towards the bull case simply because markets are usually boring or choppy the month or so after the Bitcoin halving event; things usually ramp up after. We've dumped over 20% in BTC and altcoins got flushed aggressively while not establishing lower local lows at the same time as BTC did recently.
Despite being bullish, it's definitely at a tipping point where if it goes up by a bit more then it's a cause for concern. This is a good chart to watch closely for the next 1-3 weeks as evidence of more incoming corrections for a few more weeks or as evidence of the bullish trend resuming.
The Bullish Scenario
The dominance goes lower and respects the current downtrend. This could either bounce off roughly 6% (this area has seen some interesting patterns in the chart) or just continue collapsing down. This would be bullish depending on if we don't have much trouble clearing the 5.8-6% range.
The Bearish Scenario
We break the current downtrend by going up to 7.5% or above in the next 2-3 weeks, at which point I think that worst case we would test somewhere around 8.15%. This would be short to slightly medium-term bearish at the worst in my opinion.
I lean towards the bull case simply because markets are usually boring or choppy the month or so after the Bitcoin halving event; things usually ramp up after. We've dumped over 20% in BTC and altcoins got flushed aggressively while not establishing lower local lows at the same time as BTC did recently.
Despite being bullish, it's definitely at a tipping point where if it goes up by a bit more then it's a cause for concern. This is a good chart to watch closely for the next 1-3 weeks as evidence of more incoming corrections for a few more weeks or as evidence of the bullish trend resuming.
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