Daily Chart: Price has only one UP direction for many years. We have seen rejections for the price at 4.93 and 4.97 to currently form a pattern of two possibilities, either a running flat for a next up wave or a reversal channel for corrective down waves.
Fundamentally, the following points should be taken into consideration:
1- Turkish President has declared his wishes to reduce the interest rates during the recent elections campaign.
2- Central Bank of Turkey has kept the current interest rate of 17.75% unchanged which caused the last up wave on USDTRY.
3- Turkey has the highest interest rate among the G20 countries.
4- Inflation is currently setting in Turkey at a high level of15.39.
5- If inflation keeps rising, interest rate might increase too.
6-The next rate decision is scheduled on September 13, 2018.
7- Recent increases for interest rate did not stop the up trend for USDTRY.
8- The main mover for USDTRY pair is Turkish inflation percentage.
Accordingly, It is more likely that interest rate will be increased into the next meeting of September 2018 due to the uncontrolled inflation. I expect that market will start to price the expected interest rate increase by creating corrective down moves within the current pattern.
A 1h chart will follow soon for more details.
Fundamentally, the following points should be taken into consideration:
1- Turkish President has declared his wishes to reduce the interest rates during the recent elections campaign.
2- Central Bank of Turkey has kept the current interest rate of 17.75% unchanged which caused the last up wave on USDTRY.
3- Turkey has the highest interest rate among the G20 countries.
4- Inflation is currently setting in Turkey at a high level of15.39.
5- If inflation keeps rising, interest rate might increase too.
6-The next rate decision is scheduled on September 13, 2018.
7- Recent increases for interest rate did not stop the up trend for USDTRY.
8- The main mover for USDTRY pair is Turkish inflation percentage.
Accordingly, It is more likely that interest rate will be increased into the next meeting of September 2018 due to the uncontrolled inflation. I expect that market will start to price the expected interest rate increase by creating corrective down moves within the current pattern.
A 1h chart will follow soon for more details.
Note
Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.