USD/TRY Technical Analysis since 2016. What is next?
No one has a crystal ball for the Forex market, but what we do have to look at is history. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, when it comes to the Turkish Lira’s current situation, history shows some alarming parallels.
The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock/ Forex market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins.
And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle
If you asked 10 people about their strategy you will find one trader among each 10 people. 9 out of each 10 people become traders then end up losing money after few month, weeks or even days.
The only person who keeps making money from the stock / Forex market is the smart trader and not the gambler . If you want to make money from the stock market then you must shift your mindset to become more of an trader / investor than a gambler. Gambler might make some profit on the short or even the medium term but sooner or later they end up with losses.
Let's start our analysis;
After the economic crisis in Turkey ( in Feb 2001 ) , USD / TRY parity was almost stable between 1.3 and 1.6 for 10 years!!! It was not the best investment decision at this time after taking the huge profit! It was 950% up from 1988 to 2002 !
The breaking point was when I decided to leave the country, I am not joking at all. Look at chart. :)
One month after I left my hometown, It was a general election in Turkey. Turkey's 17th general election was held on 12 June 2011.
Justice and Development Party re-elected with 49.8 % of the vote. And, TRY lost the game against Dollar again.
So, How can you understand that it was the best time to buy as a long investor?
The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea.
The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point.
Pick the weekly chart and look at the chart carefully.
1 ) The 10 years resistance level is broken
2 ) Volume was getting increasing
3 ) MA 50 passed MA 100
4 ) The candle was above the uptrend-line
5 ) The candle was above MA 100
Since May 2011, The candle was always above MA 100. The last time the candle touched MA 100 was in Feb 2013.
OK, got it. So, When is the best time to convert TRY to USD for a long time? Be specific.
1 ) When the candle touch MA 100 ( Last time was 6 years ago )
2 ) When the candle touch MA 50 ( It touched at least once last 17 years, except 2 years - 2015 and 2018 )
More specific? 6.54 and 5.52 will be the next best areas if it drops. If not? Watch out MA 50.
Since Nov 2018, The candle was first time above MA 20 , It is a bullish setup for Dollar. Sorry for TRY!
USD is super strong as long as it is above MA 20.
Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself.
What is the USD to TRY exchange rate today?
The USD/TRY Forex rate is 6.8 today.
Will Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate grow / rise / go up?
Yes. The USD/TRY exchange rate can go up from 6.8 to 10TL in 2022.
Is it profitable to invest in USD/TRY Forex pair?
Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18% in one year.
Argentine peso JUST HIT the ATL again vs USD dollar THIS WEEK. Last 20 years, Their historical graphics have been identical.
Don't surprise if USD / TRY hit 10TL ( The previous all-time high was around 7.24 on August 13, 2018 )
To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else.
**You are an investor / trader, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.
***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock/ Forex market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins.
And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle
If you asked 10 people about their strategy you will find one trader among each 10 people. 9 out of each 10 people become traders then end up losing money after few month, weeks or even days.
The only person who keeps making money from the stock / Forex market is the smart trader and not the gambler . If you want to make money from the stock market then you must shift your mindset to become more of an trader / investor than a gambler. Gambler might make some profit on the short or even the medium term but sooner or later they end up with losses.
Let's start our analysis;
After the economic crisis in Turkey ( in Feb 2001 ) , USD / TRY parity was almost stable between 1.3 and 1.6 for 10 years!!! It was not the best investment decision at this time after taking the huge profit! It was 950% up from 1988 to 2002 !
The breaking point was when I decided to leave the country, I am not joking at all. Look at chart. :)
One month after I left my hometown, It was a general election in Turkey. Turkey's 17th general election was held on 12 June 2011.
Justice and Development Party re-elected with 49.8 % of the vote. And, TRY lost the game against Dollar again.
So, How can you understand that it was the best time to buy as a long investor?
The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea.
The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point.
Pick the weekly chart and look at the chart carefully.
1 ) The 10 years resistance level is broken
2 ) Volume was getting increasing
3 ) MA 50 passed MA 100
4 ) The candle was above the uptrend-line
5 ) The candle was above MA 100
Since May 2011, The candle was always above MA 100. The last time the candle touched MA 100 was in Feb 2013.
OK, got it. So, When is the best time to convert TRY to USD for a long time? Be specific.
1 ) When the candle touch MA 100 ( Last time was 6 years ago )
2 ) When the candle touch MA 50 ( It touched at least once last 17 years, except 2 years - 2015 and 2018 )
More specific? 6.54 and 5.52 will be the next best areas if it drops. If not? Watch out MA 50.
Since Nov 2018, The candle was first time above MA 20 , It is a bullish setup for Dollar. Sorry for TRY!
USD is super strong as long as it is above MA 20.
Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself.
What is the USD to TRY exchange rate today?
The USD/TRY Forex rate is 6.8 today.
Will Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate grow / rise / go up?
Yes. The USD/TRY exchange rate can go up from 6.8 to 10TL in 2022.
Is it profitable to invest in USD/TRY Forex pair?
Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18% in one year.
Argentine peso JUST HIT the ATL again vs USD dollar THIS WEEK. Last 20 years, Their historical graphics have been identical.
Don't surprise if USD / TRY hit 10TL ( The previous all-time high was around 7.24 on August 13, 2018 )
To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else.
**You are an investor / trader, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.
***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
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