Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave View):
🌀 Wave Structure Overview (Elliott Wave):
Wave (1): Sharp rally up to 2008 (Global Financial Crisis peak).
Wave (2): Deep corrective wave ending around 2011.
Wave (3): Strongest and longest wave, peaking around 2016 (a textbook impulsive 3rd wave).
Wave (4): Sideways-to-down correction, consolidating the gains of Wave (3), ending 2018.
Wave (5): Final push higher, peaking around 2023–2024.
🧠 Note: Wave (5) looks like it may be ending or already ended, indicating a major corrective phase is due.
📉 Projected Correction:
The projected arrow suggests a retracement down to the 11.50 – 13.00 ZAR zone.
This level aligns with:
Previous Wave (1) top (2008),
Wave (4) low (2018),
Strong monthly demand zone (grey box).
💡 This supports the idea of a full cycle correction — possibly a Wave A-B-C retracement on a higher time frame.
🌍 Fundamental + Macro Drivers to Watch:
🇺🇸 U.S. Factors:
Interest rate cycle: If the Fed starts cutting rates post-2024, USD weakness can contribute to this bearish outlook.
Election year: Political uncertainty or a shift in administration could trigger capital flow changes.
🇿🇦 South African Factors:
BRICS expansion and de-dollarization: If BRICS continues pushing for reduced USD reliance, it might support ZAR strength long-term.
Commodity cycle: As a resource-rich economy, a commodities boom (e.g. gold, platinum) could strengthen ZAR.
Policy and infrastructure improvements in South Africa could also boost investor confidence and foreign inflows.
📊 Conclusion:
This is a major long-term top formation on USDZAR with:
Clear 5-wave completion,
Room for a deep correction (potentially 30–35% downside from current levels),
Strong technical confluence at the 11.50–13.00 range,
Fundamentals that could support ZAR strength over the next few years.
🌀 Wave Structure Overview (Elliott Wave):
Wave (1): Sharp rally up to 2008 (Global Financial Crisis peak).
Wave (2): Deep corrective wave ending around 2011.
Wave (3): Strongest and longest wave, peaking around 2016 (a textbook impulsive 3rd wave).
Wave (4): Sideways-to-down correction, consolidating the gains of Wave (3), ending 2018.
Wave (5): Final push higher, peaking around 2023–2024.
🧠 Note: Wave (5) looks like it may be ending or already ended, indicating a major corrective phase is due.
📉 Projected Correction:
The projected arrow suggests a retracement down to the 11.50 – 13.00 ZAR zone.
This level aligns with:
Previous Wave (1) top (2008),
Wave (4) low (2018),
Strong monthly demand zone (grey box).
💡 This supports the idea of a full cycle correction — possibly a Wave A-B-C retracement on a higher time frame.
🌍 Fundamental + Macro Drivers to Watch:
🇺🇸 U.S. Factors:
Interest rate cycle: If the Fed starts cutting rates post-2024, USD weakness can contribute to this bearish outlook.
Election year: Political uncertainty or a shift in administration could trigger capital flow changes.
🇿🇦 South African Factors:
BRICS expansion and de-dollarization: If BRICS continues pushing for reduced USD reliance, it might support ZAR strength long-term.
Commodity cycle: As a resource-rich economy, a commodities boom (e.g. gold, platinum) could strengthen ZAR.
Policy and infrastructure improvements in South Africa could also boost investor confidence and foreign inflows.
📊 Conclusion:
This is a major long-term top formation on USDZAR with:
Clear 5-wave completion,
Room for a deep correction (potentially 30–35% downside from current levels),
Strong technical confluence at the 11.50–13.00 range,
Fundamentals that could support ZAR strength over the next few years.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.