Core and Headline CPI RELEASED (Dec 2023 figures)
Core and Headline CPI (Dec 2023 figures)
U.S. Headline CPI
Prev: 3.1%
Exp: 3.2%
Rep: 3.4% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 🚨
U.S. Core CPI
Prev: 4.0%
Exp: 3.8%
Rep: 3.9% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED - but still fell
from 4% to 3.9%✅
CORE CPI FALLS BELOW 4% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2021
We have a long way to go before we reach the Fed Target of 2%.
Additional info previously shared:
Core vs Headline (the difference)
You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line.
The Feds 2% Target
It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
U.S. Headline CPI
Prev: 3.1%
Exp: 3.2%
Rep: 3.4% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 🚨
U.S. Core CPI
Prev: 4.0%
Exp: 3.8%
Rep: 3.9% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED - but still fell
from 4% to 3.9%✅
CORE CPI FALLS BELOW 4% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2021
We have a long way to go before we reach the Fed Target of 2%.
Additional info previously shared:
Core vs Headline (the difference)
You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line.
The Feds 2% Target
It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.