Oil - Is it Really the Bottom?
Updated
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Looking at the 1W and the 3 day and 1 day, oil has bearish divergences, especially on the daily, compared to the previous drops.
After forming an apparent double bottom, oil has broken $66 going into Friday after forming an apparent W bottom.
However, this is right under the hourly 200MA and at a key support/resistance point. The awkwardness in this trade is it is an optimal short zone if oil is very bearish.
One cannot simply expect it is +EV to long here to play a stop hunt over 67-68, yet, stop hunting is a sport, and this is an area where we can have a reversal.
The angle of the double bottom bounce is very steep and volume is not high. It is very annoying to get stop ran here over $68 but I feel entering short over $66 now that there's been a pullback on short (1H) frames is a valid setup for a trade with an RR of 2.0
Short: $66-$66.50
Target: $61.50
Stop: $68.20
RR/2.06
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Looking at the 1W and the 3 day and 1 day, oil has bearish divergences, especially on the daily, compared to the previous drops.
After forming an apparent double bottom, oil has broken $66 going into Friday after forming an apparent W bottom.
However, this is right under the hourly 200MA and at a key support/resistance point. The awkwardness in this trade is it is an optimal short zone if oil is very bearish.
One cannot simply expect it is +EV to long here to play a stop hunt over 67-68, yet, stop hunting is a sport, and this is an area where we can have a reversal.
The angle of the double bottom bounce is very steep and volume is not high. It is very annoying to get stop ran here over $68 but I feel entering short over $66 now that there's been a pullback on short (1H) frames is a valid setup for a trade with an RR of 2.0
Short: $66-$66.50
Target: $61.50
Stop: $68.20
RR/2.06
You can sign up for 1Broker with the link in my signature below and simply copy my public trade as well.
==
Stop the Organ Harvesting Persecution of Falun Gong Practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party
dafoh.org/petition-to-the-united-nations
Note
An example of what I mean with bearish divergence on the 3-DayMajor major divergence between price bump to 72 compared to MACD. Major divergence between last similar dump and its reversal and this one.
Note
Daily shows it somewhat closer. The more bearish it is the less it's going to bounce or stop run high to let trapped longs out.
If I'm wrong about oil being bearish then this may even be a great reversal zone heading into next week.
That's why we trade with a stop and use risk/reward.
Note
This trade is currently green, which is nice. Still could be a reversal zone, but I would not call this 4H indicative of a bullish reversal exactly. Plan still in tact.
Note
We'll see how the market acts when trading opens. Weekly painted a reversal candle but daily looks pretty beairsh closing under May support.
Maybe we'll get a sweet swing high for dumpage.
Note
Moving stop to 65.90 inside the wick of Saturday's bearish candle, slightly in profit.Trade closed manually
Closed this trade out earlier while 5% green. What I'm thinking right now, for a variety of reasons, is that this structure may be indicating oil is going to take a run at $67-68, but I'm still hashing that out before I make a call. Note
Glad I stopped out of this trade. I do now think oil will take a run at 67-68 and entered long with the following criteria at 65.90.
Note
Ugh the labels get in the way of the bars. Whatever.
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