OIL SHORT: Biggest scam of the year or technical consolidation?
Updated
Dear shorts, I know most of us are extremely frustrated with the situation of OIL in the past (almost) 2 months. Whilst it should have retraced a long time ago, it can't seem to do so. In the early stages of this short trade, mostly technical indicators supported the idea whilst in the past ±4 weeks fundamental factors should cause oil to crash, since despite OPEC's pitiful attempt to cut production, the glut has grown. Yet, we see oil refusing to crash and moreover, we see oil skyrocketing on days where data is the worst. This makes no sense fundamentally and thus I was led to conclude that there are MM involved in this state in which oil is traded under. Still, before every major downturn for oil we see a period of consolidation ranging from 16d to 58d. The longer the consolidation the worst the movement downwards (statistically). Despite my frustration I have been averaging down my position every time I find an opportunity. The downturn should start soon and it will be ugly. All the pumpers will flee and oil should crash. Yet, there is a possibility that pumpers win since the divergence between Hedge Fund and retail traders positions are at a huge divergence. Thus, I will set my stop in the range of 55-55.35.
Note
For order for this to be a confirmed pivot, we need 1. To break the 50DMA (on daily)
2. To break 50.50 to trigger panic selling
Note
If there is no insensible buying after EIA tomorrow, I think this is the moment we all have been waiting for. Oil is getting slammed.Note
Here comes the manipulation gentlemen...Note
Only down movement I see is this ABCDE Elliot. But to be honest I don't count on this trade making any money for the next weeks. So I will stop averaging down and let the trade develop itself. After all "I might be wrong" (or it is just manipulated, you judge)Note
Nice bearish fade to today's OPEC monthly reportNote
If we fail to break the triangle to the downside, I will consider exiting the trade. Yet, i think this is the end of the speculation era. Time for reality to hit the market like a train.Note
Oil will pop tomorrow on terrible inventories because "you know what, we might have huge builds of oil inventories which show deficient demand, but hey at least we put in effect some miserable oil cuts, now buy oil #OPEClogic #MM"Note
If the past weeks have been consolidation this is the week we start the next 4-6 weeks of bear domination.
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