USOIL SHORT: CONSOLIDATION PATTERN
Updated
2 months later, oil is still flat. As mentioned in my previous post about oil, I think this is a very crucial moment in the future price of oil. That's because oil is heavily manipulated and thus, if we fail to fulfill the consolidation and crash pattern as observed on 2015-06-29, I think oil will shoot to $65. All indicators on the weekly are very bearish and additionally the price has been riding the 10DMA into reversal.
I currently hold a position with NO MARGIN at an average 52.57 (January Contract Prices). Thus, I can afford to wait. I will average my position down as much as possible unless the price breaks up the daily wedge (see previous post) which will make me exit my position. Still, I think the possibility of that happening is low.
I currently hold a position with NO MARGIN at an average 52.57 (January Contract Prices). Thus, I can afford to wait. I will average my position down as much as possible unless the price breaks up the daily wedge (see previous post) which will make me exit my position. Still, I think the possibility of that happening is low.
Note
Still range-boundNote
You all ready to long EIA?Note
My contribution to the chat during EIA: imo this is gonna fade
bulls are too weak here
Note
For us to continue downwards, we first need to break the 200DMA on the 1H which we failed to do multiple times the previous week.Note
Do not enter a short at this point. It could be a bear trap. I would wait until 1 hour after EIA tomorrow. I wanna see how the MM will react to the 800k cushing build (according to genscape)Note
As expected, oil repeated the same pattern as last week during the API-EIA realeases. I think this signals that market makers are abandoning the long position. That's because they cause some turmoil, so that they create "opportunities" to "buy the dip", then further help oil price increase to get everyone thinking it will skyrocket after EIA, which beats expectations. When EIA is released though, they find the opportunity to liquidate their positions without making it look supsicious. Still volume is decreasing, which leads me to believe MM are almost done dumping.Note
Nicre break of the 50dma on daily.Note
The way this is developing, I expect it to have the same pattern as the last two weeks, but with lower lows on the weekly.Note
I don't like how this turned bearish before EIA. This might be a buy the build situation that sends oil to 53.7-54...Note
The pattern i recognized is turning out to be well fitNote
I am still worried about the non-consolidation. We needed some green movement in the morning. This might cause buy the build if we have a a build larger than or equal to foretasted.
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