US Oil - Hits a critical zone [VIP]
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Breakdown
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
Master Key for zones
*Blue = Monthly
*Purple = weekly
*Red = 4 Days
*Yellow = 16 Hours
*Orange = Daily
*Dark Green = 8 Hour
*Grey = 4hour
*Pink = 1 hour
Original Idea here: December 15th 2020.
Updated Idea: April 30th 2021
Understanding where we are now with the imbalances.
Price has tested on the weekly the $67.00 high, which was a critical double top move allowing a correction to take place bringing price back towards $61.50. This established a weekly imbalance where April 19th 2021, the previous bearish wick offered a pricing pivot point.
The Sellers had "netted" where the lowest point of the candle matched the fractal, allowing the market to create structural imbalance to add long positions.
The engineered lows lured sellers and buyers to add aggressively. [See chart below fig 1].
The imbalances have netted off on the weekly to the monthly candle of February, March 2021.
Now refer to the Monthly - price of the wicks low, closed at the monthly close two months previous - resting on top - meaning, the bullish movements are still in clear progression.
Fibonacci & Daily Imbalance Combination
Above the weekly imbalance block, price had surpassed and created the buying impulses, price needed to fill the wick as at 8th March 2021, and build upon the high probability of extending higher highs. Based upon the Fibonacci pattern, price established its peak "0" and once forming a -0.27 extension high, a correctional retest of the imbalance was required. This aligns with the Daily and weekly imbalance blocks.
Volume Analysis
The battle around the reactive zone is strong as the hidden battle under a monthly imbalance is a weekly imbalance, where movements create opportunities for price filling of monthly wicks. Price needed to revert from the monthly zone above $68--> to recapture correctional moves and stimulate the buying structure in place.
Where confirmations were measure above, buyers were still in control. The range of buying and selling upon a weekly bullish candle cancelled out allows range traders and short term speculators to join in the liquidity.
Note how the top of the volume range - bulls and bears back off, leaving the buyers to take over.
USD CAD vs WTI
Inverse correlation, but interesting relationship overall, as the Loonie weakens, the opportunity cost for buying from imbalances from the monthly offers the Dollar to gain traction towards the next zone.
Price also offers the WTI as the Canadian Dollar weakens, pressure of the commodity to rise.
The relationship between looks to the output of barrels.
Use the link below to look at the US table and CAD table.
US
https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-usa/sectorandindustry-industry/oil-gas-production/
CAD
https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-canada/sectorandindustry-industry/oil-gas-production/
Fundamental Fans:
Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash.
2020-2021.
We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage.
This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed.
Here is the current cross examination of the UK Oil Vs WTI using the weekly chart.
Both are approaching a critical point in the respective price zones which both happen to be monthly imbalance zones. The correlations are gearing to a highly reactive point, so watch with caution.
Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect.
Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price.
Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease.
Producer Price Index
This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden.
The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line.
Adding the inflation ETF into the mix, the commodity price is rising inline with both the UK oil and WTI - so again the rate of positive correlation here is showing highly probable further increments to long positions.
See below for the weekly chart.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Breakdown
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
Master Key for zones
*Blue = Monthly
*Purple = weekly
*Red = 4 Days
*Yellow = 16 Hours
*Orange = Daily
*Dark Green = 8 Hour
*Grey = 4hour
*Pink = 1 hour
Original Idea here: December 15th 2020.
Updated Idea: April 30th 2021
Understanding where we are now with the imbalances.
Price has tested on the weekly the $67.00 high, which was a critical double top move allowing a correction to take place bringing price back towards $61.50. This established a weekly imbalance where April 19th 2021, the previous bearish wick offered a pricing pivot point.
The Sellers had "netted" where the lowest point of the candle matched the fractal, allowing the market to create structural imbalance to add long positions.
The engineered lows lured sellers and buyers to add aggressively. [See chart below fig 1].
The imbalances have netted off on the weekly to the monthly candle of February, March 2021.
Now refer to the Monthly - price of the wicks low, closed at the monthly close two months previous - resting on top - meaning, the bullish movements are still in clear progression.
Fibonacci & Daily Imbalance Combination
Above the weekly imbalance block, price had surpassed and created the buying impulses, price needed to fill the wick as at 8th March 2021, and build upon the high probability of extending higher highs. Based upon the Fibonacci pattern, price established its peak "0" and once forming a -0.27 extension high, a correctional retest of the imbalance was required. This aligns with the Daily and weekly imbalance blocks.
Volume Analysis
The battle around the reactive zone is strong as the hidden battle under a monthly imbalance is a weekly imbalance, where movements create opportunities for price filling of monthly wicks. Price needed to revert from the monthly zone above $68--> to recapture correctional moves and stimulate the buying structure in place.
Where confirmations were measure above, buyers were still in control. The range of buying and selling upon a weekly bullish candle cancelled out allows range traders and short term speculators to join in the liquidity.
Note how the top of the volume range - bulls and bears back off, leaving the buyers to take over.
USD CAD vs WTI
Inverse correlation, but interesting relationship overall, as the Loonie weakens, the opportunity cost for buying from imbalances from the monthly offers the Dollar to gain traction towards the next zone.
Price also offers the WTI as the Canadian Dollar weakens, pressure of the commodity to rise.
The relationship between looks to the output of barrels.
Use the link below to look at the US table and CAD table.
US
https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-usa/sectorandindustry-industry/oil-gas-production/
CAD
https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-canada/sectorandindustry-industry/oil-gas-production/
Fundamental Fans:
Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash.
2020-2021.
We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage.
This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed.
Here is the current cross examination of the UK Oil Vs WTI using the weekly chart.
Both are approaching a critical point in the respective price zones which both happen to be monthly imbalance zones. The correlations are gearing to a highly reactive point, so watch with caution.
Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect.
Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price.
Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease.
Producer Price Index
This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden.
The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line.
Adding the inflation ETF into the mix, the commodity price is rising inline with both the UK oil and WTI - so again the rate of positive correlation here is showing highly probable further increments to long positions.
See below for the weekly chart.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.