Short

Updated

OIL - The magic 200 SMA

The 200 SMA played an important role in oil's past history during tha last few years.
This call is going to be based on the scenario when oil tags /marginally breaks the 200 SMA and drops into its daily cycle low.
The daily cycle is very mature, I already closed my longs last week.
From this point it's definetely risky to hold any long positions before we have a correction.

A possible target could be the 100 SMA.

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100 SMA

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We broke above the 200 SMA.

Just like at this rally:

In the worst case scenarion the DCL will test back the 200 SMA and we get out with small gains or break even.
But I don't think we can stay above the 200 SMA for too long.

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We’ve arrived to the next resistance zone: the 2018 year’s resistance at 64$.

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The DCL will minimum back test the 200SMA at 61$.

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I’m adding to the short positions at this point.

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So far so good.

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Double top is developing on the 4hrs/1hr chart

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We have a weird broadening top as someone is trying to push up price to the same level again and again.(64.65)

I let you guess who are this guys.

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It will come down sooner or later and we will sit this out.

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Let’s if we get a rescue at 62.3 again.
LOL

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Finally the move into the DCL is on the way.
I hope everybody still on board

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I’m waiting for the RSI 5 or 6 reach oversold conditions.

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Watching today’s drop the 200SMA doesn’t seem like an unrealistic target does it?

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These heavily manipulated markets are losing ground in a blink of a moment. When the players who are proping up the price quietly exit the trade the small trader gets trapped in the position and doesn’t understand why the breakout didn’t work this time.

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Im always using the same color for the 100 and 200 SMA.
200 cyan
100 magenta
50 blue

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And here is the 200SMA.

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I promised you 61$ as a minimum target of a DCL.

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Closing the 50% of the position at 61.10. Just in case if OPEC decide to save this tomorrow.

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If it stays here Im going to close the rest of the short during the european night .

Key reversal is forming.

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Key reversal. Bounce from the 200 SMA. It’s too risky to hold any shorts.

Trade closed manually

We got a small pullback this morning , I used it to close all my short positions. Even if you didn’t add to the shorts where I suggested you can still close here at break even. The 200SMA was back tested. Waiting for a new setup.

chartwatchers

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chartwatchers

Also on:

Related publications

OIL - 200 SMA test again

by chartwatchers