Nothing in trading is a certainty, but there are times, when given the circumstances, there are things that have high probability.
Though the weekly chart is down, the Day chart is on an up trend since Feb 2015. Oil looks like it is in a Key support range (blue zone) and my thought will be to buy when there is a clear signal of reversal. to retest the high of 54.00.
There is also the 38.2% Fib within the Key Support zone, so I will look at around that area for signs of possible reversal. Good luck everyone!