US OIL!! A Possible inside bar Setup at the market close
Updated
US OIL! Price testing the key major resistance
Now , WTI market is trading right at the Seller's hot point & we are ready to join the rally downside. Attached is the WTI daily chart & we can clearly see prices are trading just below the $57.50 key major resistance level & this very level aligns well with the 50% retrace level of the daily swing lower & to put odds more in favour, we have weekly 150exp helping us in our bearish bias , as we also have the weekly 150exp acting as dynamic resistance and aligning with the previous two confluent factors ( $57.50 resistance & the 50% retrace level).
So , lets outline the factors of confluence backing our trade idea :
1. Daily dominant bearish trend.
2. $57.50 horizontal resistance level.
3. 50% daily retrace level resistance.
4. Weekly 150exp dynamic resistance.
Now, what we see prices doing in coming hours/days is to form/complete an inside bar Setup today at the NY close & tomorrow could be a fake out of the inside bar Setup & this will ultimately produce the price action Sell Setup & we call it the inside bar fake out setup from the confluent area. Let's see what develops but for now ,there are multiple confluent factors supporting our Sell idea so we can take a blind entry (without the price action setup) & If eventually we will get the price action setup from this very level $57.50, then that price action Setup will itself act as one of the confluent factors.
So , below given is the trade idea : (We are already in the trade & below given are our entry levels)
Entry @ 57.10 till $58.00
Stops @ 58.55
TP @ 54.55
Risk Reward : 1:3
Trade is active from $57.50 and Sell limit placed for $58.00
Best of luck
Now , WTI market is trading right at the Seller's hot point & we are ready to join the rally downside. Attached is the WTI daily chart & we can clearly see prices are trading just below the $57.50 key major resistance level & this very level aligns well with the 50% retrace level of the daily swing lower & to put odds more in favour, we have weekly 150exp helping us in our bearish bias , as we also have the weekly 150exp acting as dynamic resistance and aligning with the previous two confluent factors ( $57.50 resistance & the 50% retrace level).
So , lets outline the factors of confluence backing our trade idea :
1. Daily dominant bearish trend.
2. $57.50 horizontal resistance level.
3. 50% daily retrace level resistance.
4. Weekly 150exp dynamic resistance.
Now, what we see prices doing in coming hours/days is to form/complete an inside bar Setup today at the NY close & tomorrow could be a fake out of the inside bar Setup & this will ultimately produce the price action Sell Setup & we call it the inside bar fake out setup from the confluent area. Let's see what develops but for now ,there are multiple confluent factors supporting our Sell idea so we can take a blind entry (without the price action setup) & If eventually we will get the price action setup from this very level $57.50, then that price action Setup will itself act as one of the confluent factors.
So , below given is the trade idea : (We are already in the trade & below given are our entry levels)
Entry @ 57.10 till $58.00
Stops @ 58.55
TP @ 54.55
Risk Reward : 1:3
Trade is active from $57.50 and Sell limit placed for $58.00
Best of luck
Note
Trade 2nd Day. 11/6/2019
So, we are holding the US OIL Short sell position & today is the second day. Let's talk about the latest market price action developments & see if we have a counter Setup formed (against our idea) so far.
Attached is the US OIL Weekly chart & we can see price is testing the confluent area and is trying to claim the $57.50 - $58.00 territory but so far bears are holding well their defence line. However , we still expect bulls to push prices higher till at least $58.00 & that is when we expect a bull retreat and market close under the $57.50 resistance.
Let's talk about the weekly confluent area we are taking about :
So, we can in the chart attached the $57.50 - $58.00 supply zone is almost aligning well with the daily 50% retrace of the recent swing lower with 150Exp acting as dynamic resistance and falling in the same territory.
Although, we did speak about having an inside bar setup last night which we didn't have at yesterday's market close but still we are expecting a false break through the $57.50 - $58.00 Supply zone.
So far, we are holding on to our original idea and staying with the same stop placement $58.55 with profit targets the $54.55 area.
Remember: One of the things that will help you stay with your position and will let you follow your conviction is the absolute stop placements which means , we must have stops at places that if get hit , the whole idea of buying or selling gets nullified.
Best of luck!
Note
Trade Update : 11/7/2019 (Third day)Nothing changed much , still holding on to the trade with same Stop.
Note
Trade Update : 11/8/2019 (Fourth Day)So , its Friday & we are looking forward to a favourable weekly market closing. A nice Pin bar rejecting higher prices & false breaking the daily 50% retrace resistance & $57.50 horizontal resistance is already on its way and will confirm itself at the market close. Moreover , if we get this week's close with the pin bar , we then will have a strong rejection of 150Exp as well.
Let's see what develops!
We are holding on to our original position and will be keeping it over the weekend after having a favourable weekly close tonight.
I can't emphasis more on the importance of absolute stop placements as this is the only way we stay emotionally detached to our positions and can stay rational.
To see our entry levels & stop placement and profit targets, please scroll up!
Trade closed manually
Closed trade @ $56.60 with +50 CENTS PROFIT. We had a nice well formed pin bar on the daily rejecting lower prices and the 150Exp, so better to scoop the profit for now and will stay on lines until prices action gives a bit more clarity.
We still expect prices to test the $58.00 and might give us a good entry to join the sellers!
Lets see what develops! For now , we are out with +50 Cents profit and staying on sidelines.
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