WTI oil, final leg down

OWN OPINIONS. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
WTI has just broken the 200 week SMA to the downside. On the daily, lost the 200 day SMA, backtested and failed (very bearish sign). If MAs arenot recaptured in the very short term it might get very ugly.

Also, the YTD AVWAP has been a magnet for price action. Once lost, it's gone directly to the next level at 1STD (currently at 74.10$). If also broken, the next AVWAP 2 STD support is in the 70$ area.

First price target is around the 70-72/barrel, where the rising trend line meets the falling short term channel, possibly touching the 261% fibo extension of the 1st short term trend impulse. IF those big support areas were to be lost, then 65-67$ is the long term pivot point

Note

Touched 72$ and bounced for a wave 4. As wave 2 was impulsive, wave 4 should draw an abc pattern before falling again to its long term PT at 65$-67$. Stop loss to the upside at 81$

Note

Wave 4 seems exhausted, and moving sideways. Stop loss to the upside still at 81$.

Trade closed: stop reached

81$ reached, wave 4 overlapping wave 2. If it breaks above 82$, could extend to the trend line (84$ area)

j_arrieta

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j_arrieta

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