Some thoughts for the coming weeks.
Borrowing 14 month cycle from smitheric1970 chart (red vertical lines on chart) and considering the previous chart posted that showed ATR reading from 2014 and now.
Since the last 14 month low on 2016/02/17, there have been 4 instances when ADX has moved below 20 (A-D). (A) was brief so won't be considered as usually you need 7-10 days for effect. In 2 cases (B-C) prices broke out, traded $5 in breakout direction then 'V' reversed in a DMI change in dominance for a $10 change.
The 4th is currently in progress (D). Considering the behavior of TSI, that the legs of these breakouts and reversals was ~2 weeks each for both, then my thoughts for coming weeks are:
Borrowing 14 month cycle from smitheric1970 chart (red vertical lines on chart) and considering the previous chart posted that showed ATR reading from 2014 and now.
Since the last 14 month low on 2016/02/17, there have been 4 instances when ADX has moved below 20 (A-D). (A) was brief so won't be considered as usually you need 7-10 days for effect. In 2 cases (B-C) prices broke out, traded $5 in breakout direction then 'V' reversed in a DMI change in dominance for a $10 change.
The 4th is currently in progress (D). Considering the behavior of TSI, that the legs of these breakouts and reversals was ~2 weeks each for both, then my thoughts for coming weeks are:
- price breaks out of current consolidation to the upside pulling TSI up higher
- The run will last for ~2 weeks with a target of ~$58
- Price will terminate in a 'V' reversal
- During this run up, ATR will drop to a lower level than in mid 2014 at the high for that year
- The following 'V' reversal and ensuing drop will begin a move that will be more reflective of mid 2014->2015 based on the ATR readings that could be achieved in the next 2 weeks
Note
watching renko for (E) leg of 'M' pattern to complete to look for a long position. 52.30 looks like a key support area and looks like where 200EMA on 4hr will align.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.