International oil prices rose slightly, mainly driven by investors covering their short positions. Brent crude futures rose 1.36% at one point, reaching a high of $67.36 per barrel; the May contract of US WTI crude oil rose to a high of $64.05 per barrel, an increase of 1.54%, while the more actively traded June contract rose by 1.84%, reaching a high of $63.56 per barrel. However, this rebound did not change the overall cautious sentiment in the market. On Monday, both major benchmark crude oils fell by more than 2%, mainly due to progress in US-Iran negotiations, easing supply concerns.
Two major concerns suppress the upward space of oil prices
1. The trade war is shrouded in the shadow of demand
Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities, pointed out: "Although short-term rebounds have been driven by short-covering, the market is still worried that the trade war may lead to a recession." He expects that WTI crude oil may remain in the range of $55-65 as uncertainty continues.
According to a Reuters survey on April 17, investors believe that trade policies will significantly drag down the US economy, with the probability of a recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%, which further suppresses expectations for crude oil demand.
2. The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, and market confidence is shaken
On Monday, US President Trump once again blasted Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding an immediate interest rate cut, otherwise the US economy may slow down. This move has exacerbated market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's policy and may affect global capital flows, thereby impacting the crude oil market.
Kikukawa warned: "Uncertainty in US monetary policy may disrupt financial markets, even drag down economic growth, and ultimately weaken crude oil demand."
3. Progress in US-Iran negotiations, supply-side pressure eased
Last Saturday (April 19), the United States and Iran agreed to draft a potential nuclear agreement framework, and market expectations for Iranian oil to return to the international market have increased. Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said: "The US-Iran negotiations have reduced the urgent risk of sanctions on Iran's oil exports, and the pressure on the supply side has eased."
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Economy has lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 by nearly 17%, further reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards long-term demand.
Outlook for the future: Inventory data becomes a short-term focus
Despite the short-term rebound in oil prices, factors such as the trade war, the Fed's policy and the US-Iran negotiations will continue to put pressure on the market. Under multiple uncertainties, oil prices may remain volatile in the short term, and investors need to be wary of the impact of sudden risk events.
Short-term focus:
US inventory data: A preliminary Reuters survey showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories may fall last week, but distillate inventories may rise, which may affect the short-term trend.
Fed trends: If the White House continues to pressure interest rate cuts, market volatility may increase.
Progress in trade negotiations: Any new developments may cause sharp fluctuations in oil prices.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOILSPOT
Two major concerns suppress the upward space of oil prices
1. The trade war is shrouded in the shadow of demand
Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities, pointed out: "Although short-term rebounds have been driven by short-covering, the market is still worried that the trade war may lead to a recession." He expects that WTI crude oil may remain in the range of $55-65 as uncertainty continues.
According to a Reuters survey on April 17, investors believe that trade policies will significantly drag down the US economy, with the probability of a recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%, which further suppresses expectations for crude oil demand.
2. The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, and market confidence is shaken
On Monday, US President Trump once again blasted Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding an immediate interest rate cut, otherwise the US economy may slow down. This move has exacerbated market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's policy and may affect global capital flows, thereby impacting the crude oil market.
Kikukawa warned: "Uncertainty in US monetary policy may disrupt financial markets, even drag down economic growth, and ultimately weaken crude oil demand."
3. Progress in US-Iran negotiations, supply-side pressure eased
Last Saturday (April 19), the United States and Iran agreed to draft a potential nuclear agreement framework, and market expectations for Iranian oil to return to the international market have increased. Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said: "The US-Iran negotiations have reduced the urgent risk of sanctions on Iran's oil exports, and the pressure on the supply side has eased."
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Economy has lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 by nearly 17%, further reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards long-term demand.
Outlook for the future: Inventory data becomes a short-term focus
Despite the short-term rebound in oil prices, factors such as the trade war, the Fed's policy and the US-Iran negotiations will continue to put pressure on the market. Under multiple uncertainties, oil prices may remain volatile in the short term, and investors need to be wary of the impact of sudden risk events.
Short-term focus:
US inventory data: A preliminary Reuters survey showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories may fall last week, but distillate inventories may rise, which may affect the short-term trend.
Fed trends: If the White House continues to pressure interest rate cuts, market volatility may increase.
Progress in trade negotiations: Any new developments may cause sharp fluctuations in oil prices.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOILSPOT 
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Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.