Last post on VIX was April 23, 2019. We were looking for another VIX spike and market dump this summer. We proposed ratios into the future and now we have the advantage of hindsight.
Just how close did our forecast come to actual events?
We were looking for a possible .618 bounce up in another sell off during the summer and we got it! (actual ratio was 55%)
Then we were looking for the VIX to settle down once again and test the lower channel line, thus setting new market highs yet again.
The market has once again shown us that both forecasts are accurate.
We also looked for the VIX to pull back down deeply for approximately 96% retracement from the summer VIX spike.
To date we are at 93% retracement as shown on the chart...
... and now It's getting extremely low yet again!
Thus we are getting close to the next market top... in fact if we have a nice "blow off" top in the market, it could send the VIX down towards the 96% target that was calculated back in April.
After the "blow off" top, will we actually see the Vix turn up and go screaming upwards towards the harmonic patterns shown?
Could be an excellent time to go long VIX products.
Those 1.618 and 2.618 extensions going into 2020 and 2021, look really spooky from here!
Prudence, at this point, requires us to start protecting our portfolios with long term (leap) puts. We should at least take some profits on stocks and go to cash near these market highs.
Gotta love Ratios :)
Just how close did our forecast come to actual events?
We were looking for a possible .618 bounce up in another sell off during the summer and we got it! (actual ratio was 55%)
Then we were looking for the VIX to settle down once again and test the lower channel line, thus setting new market highs yet again.
The market has once again shown us that both forecasts are accurate.
We also looked for the VIX to pull back down deeply for approximately 96% retracement from the summer VIX spike.
To date we are at 93% retracement as shown on the chart...
... and now It's getting extremely low yet again!
Thus we are getting close to the next market top... in fact if we have a nice "blow off" top in the market, it could send the VIX down towards the 96% target that was calculated back in April.
After the "blow off" top, will we actually see the Vix turn up and go screaming upwards towards the harmonic patterns shown?
Could be an excellent time to go long VIX products.
Those 1.618 and 2.618 extensions going into 2020 and 2021, look really spooky from here!
Prudence, at this point, requires us to start protecting our portfolios with long term (leap) puts. We should at least take some profits on stocks and go to cash near these market highs.
Gotta love Ratios :)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.