Long

The creeping VIX-just what the fed ordered

Updated

Slow & boring-just what the fed ordered (or printed). Our manufacturing data may be in the dumps but we're sure good at manufacturing lies and artificial markets. Volatility coiling up-watch for possible wave to (D) before retracement/sideways movement to (E). I want a solid test of upper trend line-Vix could blow through the roof or coil up for months until after apex of this triangle. For now, they're keeping a tight lid on this.. The circus is in town and we're all in it.

(renko blocks not playable from tradingview ideas window - I'll update this idea by posting snapshots as price moves along or when I feel something significant is happening)

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original post from October '19

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volume trend in VXX

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I should mention, that volume profile is specific to my chart using renko blocks at a specific block size. You'll not be able to replicate that profile on normal charts but vix ETFs look incredible right now!

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I'm thinking.. maybe just maybe.. we have a correction going into feb-march in market and we get a decent move in the vix.. we're still getting squeezed into a corner in vix but we should see some moves soon..

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vix getting a little cramped in the corner... could be a very slow few months if vix stays in this tight range

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don't read too much into this upper (pink) trend line. I have discovered that angle-trends while using renko get warped.. the more important thing to watch is the sine wave structure LOW,HIGH,LOW.. Jack is not out of the box yet.. when (meaning it's certain) price moves out of this wedge... we're going to know all about it

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what a place to park the vix on friday at market close.. why must it always be right on the edge? wow.

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vix on renko shows a slightly different trend line.. which cannot be fully trusted over time but you have to wonder about the possibility of a move up on this wave.. I could say that (D) was hit and we're going to creep back towards the apex/far corner of this wedge but that would be quite boring.. I'd love to see a breakout before April..

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we touched upper trend line/resistance again but it looks entirely possible we could blow through. I'm holding some longer term calls in VXX for such an event. If vix skids lower into march, april, may.. it wouldn't take me off guard either so I'm prepared for what comes our way.

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The wild animal is out of the cage as we speak. Does it hang around the cage, sip some water from the drinking bowl before running away? Or does it take off like the wild animal it is.. being cooped up for too long
idk.. anything can happen now.

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I sold some june vxx calls. Today was a good day to be long volatility. Glad I didn't get faked out over the last month.. holding my 2021 calls and 1 vxx put to cushion pullbacks. I suspect it could skid sideways & down to the launch pad lower. If not, great! But I am prepared to be patient if the vix creeps & skids down. No guarantee it goes back down but I'll be waiting patiently.

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here's an updated shot of the original chart for this post- vix on renko. As I've said, don't take the upper trend line too seriously on this chart. Renko-angled trends do NOT line up properly over time.. the trend is actually in a different place unless it's a straight horizontal trend.. but it is fascinating to me that vix nailed this one precisely before pulling back some into the close..

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vix moved 130+% from the low.. very good!

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I've been secretly hoping we'd get a pull back and return to apex of the wedge before the larger move.. but this feels like the larger move... incredible amount of fear and in such a short time.. what a difference a week makes, huh? Let's see if we can find the next market bottom and see if we can pinpoint a vix drop

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played out well

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it's been incredible.. respect price wedges in the vix! Since the breakout, I think I see an EW pattern in here 12345, abc correction. I don't know if B or C has been met but I would expect C to be lower (below #4). Maybe that could be another long entry, idk.

gghsusa

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