Is a short-term recovery in the works for SPY?
It was a wild start to another week of trading. Yesterday SPY was down close to 3%. Let's look at the rest of this week and into next week:
News:
- Commodities are going parabolic
- Ukraine/Russia are creating geopolitical instability which has spilled over into monetary instability
- Today the USA should release news regarding the import of Russian oil
- Tomorrow we have JOLTs and Crude Inventories (both important to the Fed)
- Thursday is Core CPI MoM and Initial Job Claims (both important to the Fed)
- Next week the Fed should announce the first 0.25% rate hike. A surprise dovish announcement could lead to a mid-term market correction.
Charts:
- The 4H chart the SPY quickly touched the .786 extension of the most recent correction before retreating to the supply zone. CCI is overbought. Mid-term it should reach the 1.0 extension at 400, which is a psychological level, and gap level from 4/1/21.
- The 1H chart retested the downward trend line, as well as the base of the channel. CCI is overbought. A short-term pullback could be in the works before heading lower to the 400 level.
- The VIX is showing signs of weakening and could rest the lower channel, which would support the idea of a short-term recovery in SPY and give the bears a better R:R.
News:
- Commodities are going parabolic
- Ukraine/Russia are creating geopolitical instability which has spilled over into monetary instability
- Today the USA should release news regarding the import of Russian oil
- Tomorrow we have JOLTs and Crude Inventories (both important to the Fed)
- Thursday is Core CPI MoM and Initial Job Claims (both important to the Fed)
- Next week the Fed should announce the first 0.25% rate hike. A surprise dovish announcement could lead to a mid-term market correction.
Charts:
- The 4H chart the SPY quickly touched the .786 extension of the most recent correction before retreating to the supply zone. CCI is overbought. Mid-term it should reach the 1.0 extension at 400, which is a psychological level, and gap level from 4/1/21.
- The 1H chart retested the downward trend line, as well as the base of the channel. CCI is overbought. A short-term pullback could be in the works before heading lower to the 400 level.
- The VIX is showing signs of weakening and could rest the lower channel, which would support the idea of a short-term recovery in SPY and give the bears a better R:R.
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