Has emotion (VIX) returned to normal?
This morning in one of my trading groups someone noted that the VIX has come down off its highs and has begun to descend. Analyzing it in the same way that suggested the initial fear spike was going to be a sustained period and not just a quick spike I do not think it is over. We have come off the highs but volatility will always do so as it is mean reverting. What we have not yet gotten is a sustained decline that would be indicated by the VIX's Daily and/or Weekly candles getting below and closing below the key inflection points. What the price chart of the VIX is demonstrating with its spike downwards yesterday is short term spikes of optimism amid persistent uncertainty.
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So the bottom might be in... the grocery store is stocked up on oatmeal again!
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"
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