A Valero Fakedown
Updated
First off, sorry for the odd orange lines, I couldn't make the chart 5 minute resolution for this one-day prediction. Instead I tried to predict where the most trading would commence for a given 15 minute timeframe by overlapping transparent lines on the 5 minute chart.
The basic premise is that Valero will end the day in the red after making a semi-H&S formation. I believe this is a "fakedown." Rather than continue to collapse (as it has done numerous times in the past) instead it will either gap up or fly up several dollars close to Monday's open. Such strange price action should catch quite a few investors off guard. That's the stock market for ya.
My reasoning: The recent deep gully since January has caused most potential sellers to sell in fear. What's left are hungry buyers who missed the correction and skittish sellers looking to take profit. Buying now may seem odd, especially given Valero's long-term downward trend, but oil prices have been anything but bearish and Valero is well-positioned to capitalize on that rally. Though prices may come back down in the next few days after this prediction, I believe Valero's future price will not disappoint. I will be keeping an eye on this today and make another Idea if it pans out on Monday.
Conflict of interest notice: I sold Valero calls earlier today and will be buying new calls EOD if Valero is close to the predicted price.
The basic premise is that Valero will end the day in the red after making a semi-H&S formation. I believe this is a "fakedown." Rather than continue to collapse (as it has done numerous times in the past) instead it will either gap up or fly up several dollars close to Monday's open. Such strange price action should catch quite a few investors off guard. That's the stock market for ya.
My reasoning: The recent deep gully since January has caused most potential sellers to sell in fear. What's left are hungry buyers who missed the correction and skittish sellers looking to take profit. Buying now may seem odd, especially given Valero's long-term downward trend, but oil prices have been anything but bearish and Valero is well-positioned to capitalize on that rally. Though prices may come back down in the next few days after this prediction, I believe Valero's future price will not disappoint. I will be keeping an eye on this today and make another Idea if it pans out on Monday.
Conflict of interest notice: I sold Valero calls earlier today and will be buying new calls EOD if Valero is close to the predicted price.
Note
Hm, no good. The semi-H&S didn't show and it also doesn't seem we'll be finishing EOD in the red.
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