Walmart Inc.
Updated

Walmart | Tariff and Cost Concerns

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Who Sells WMT now and Why ?

In its Q4 FY25 results, Walmart reported a 4% year-over-year (Y/Y) revenue growth, reaching $180.6 billion, surpassing expectations by $1.6 billion. The company's U.S. comparable sales saw a solid 5% increase, with e-commerce standing out as a major growth driver, up 16% Y/Y and now accounting for 18% of total sales. The performance was largely fueled by higher-income households, which continue to be a key segment for Walmart’s sales growth. Additionally, global advertising revenue surged by 29%, highlighting the increasing importance of non-retail income streams for the company.

However, Walmart’s guidance for FY26 fell short of market expectations, with projected sales growth of 3%-4% and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.50-$2.60, compared to the $2.76 anticipated by analysts. Management attributed the conservative outlook to ongoing economic uncertainty and the potential for tariff impacts on costs. Despite this, Walmart’s leadership expressed confidence in exceeding initial forecasts, as has been the case in previous years, suggesting that the company’s resilience and adaptability remain key strengths.

Looking ahead, Walmart’s strategy centers on bolstering its digital footprint, expanding automation, and exploring new revenue opportunities, particularly in advertising, which includes its recent acquisition of VIZIO. The company's growing membership base is another avenue for long-term growth. Even with the near-term headwinds, such as cautious consumer spending and macroeconomic challenges, Walmart’s ability to gain market share, especially in e-commerce, and its continued focus on profitability within its digital segments position it well for sustained growth in the coming years.

Overall, while Walmart's near-term outlook is tempered by economic concerns, its strategic investments in technology, digital commerce, and advertising offer strong long-term growth potential. The company's diversified revenue streams and its ability to adapt to market shifts provide a solid foundation for continued success.
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Walmart reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $165.6B, up 3% Y/Y and $1.2B above estimates. U.S. comparable sales rose 4.5%, driven by increased transactions and higher average basket sizes. E-commerce remained strong, growing 22% globally and adding 350bps to comps. Notably, online operations turned a profit for the first time, supported by gains in pickup, delivery, and marketplace services.

Advertising revenue jumped 50% Y/Y, powered by Walmart Connect (+31%) and VIZIO integration. Membership and other income rose 4%, helping offset FX pressure and improve operating margins. However, the company withheld Q2 EPS guidance, citing tariff-related cost increases expected to hit as early as June—posing a challenge to its low-price positioning.

Management reiterated full year guidance but flagged ongoing weakness in general merchandise and rising trade uncertainty. Walmart is leaning on its scale, supply chain agility, and digital capabilities to navigate the choppy retail environment.

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