3-drives up or SHS back down to retest bottom ? Time will tell
Updated
Looking at the 15, WSM is at a crossroads right now.
A 3th drive up in is probable, thus bringing WSM up to 0,0375 USDT to 0,039 USDT before any new retrace.
Otherwise is a SHS pattern still in the cards dragging WSM back down to 0,022 USDT and lower to retest the bottom at 0,0187 USDT, thus maken a double bottom, what would be a bullish indicator to.
Staying above the 0,618 Fib is crucial to validate the 3the drive up hypotheses.
A break downward of the 0,785 Fib invalidates this idea als would lean to the SHS pattern scenario.
MACD an RSI slightly favor the 3te drive scenario.
Let's see what is does at 0,288 USDT and 0,277 USDT
Not trading advice, DYOR
A 3th drive up in is probable, thus bringing WSM up to 0,0375 USDT to 0,039 USDT before any new retrace.
Otherwise is a SHS pattern still in the cards dragging WSM back down to 0,022 USDT and lower to retest the bottom at 0,0187 USDT, thus maken a double bottom, what would be a bullish indicator to.
Staying above the 0,618 Fib is crucial to validate the 3the drive up hypotheses.
A break downward of the 0,785 Fib invalidates this idea als would lean to the SHS pattern scenario.
MACD an RSI slightly favor the 3te drive scenario.
Let's see what is does at 0,288 USDT and 0,277 USDT
Not trading advice, DYOR
Note
Price seems to have consolidated and found a strong support at 0,030 USDT Pattern turned into a distribution pattern around 0,030 USDT with could be a good sign.
The 3rd drive up seems be getting invalidated due to the strict time restrictions in a 3 drives pattern.
The same time restriction applies for the SHS pattern with is also becoming more and more unlikely due to te stable distribution pattern around 0,030 USDT. This is also a positive sign.
I will be watching a positive move up, possibly starting a new 3 drives up pattern.
Beware of big wick up and strait back down into BS pattern bak to 0,026 USDT, possibly due to over leveraged short traders getting stoped out at 0,034 USDT
At this time no trades planned, just monitoring what will happen.
Not trading advice, DYOR
Note
As predicted, a positive move upward with a strong expected rejection at 0,034 USDT.Very typical rejection. (= long wick down)
Why ?
First of all, new unexperienced investors and noob traders who didn't use an adequate stop loss, who panicked at the drop below the pré-sale. For them is seems like the only way out of that loss is to set up a sale order at the pré-sale price an hope for a bounce back up there.
2nd... Traders how made an analysis that the price would go further down an put their stop loss at 0,034
At this time a nice bounce of the retrace.
Let's see it break and retest to go back in for a buy.
Note
Looks like a healthy 3 drives retrace from the initial rally from 0,0187 USDT to 0,034 USDT.Normal retrace would be to anywhere between the .618 an .786 fib af this rally.
This would be 0,02585 USDT and 0,02212 USDT as a pivot point.
If WSM at least holds 0,02212 USDT a manages to bounce off it, this would be the start of al new 1 to 5 rally upward.
A fall below 0,02212 USDT could trigger further selloff back to 0,0187 USDT where it would then create a true double bottom that should act als a launched for an new attempt to break resistance at 0,034 USDT.
Not trading advice, DYOR
Note
Looks like it will go down to the .768 fib at 0,02212.
At the same time a massive bullish divergence is forming in the proces.
This could indicate a bounce of the .768 fib
Invalidated bij drop below 0,22 with RSI going down.
Let's see what it does ???
Trade active
The bullish divergence played out nicely.WSM made a primary bounce between the .618 and .768 fib as expected.
Earlier scenario looks likely.
Sold for TP at 0,034 USDT and now bought back at 0,0238 USDT
1st target = 0,033 USDT
Let's take a look in a new idea what is possible is the shot to medium term
Note
Some insight into how this trade was predictable:Lot's of "noob" investors (not traders) in a meme coin presale.
They have "moon-mentality" and want to become rich quick.
Price drops below presale
Extreme "noobs" paid and sell at a loss (dumb money) - price drops further
Smart money investors but here for the first time.
Some "noobs" keep "holding" hard but panic.
They see a rebound at the bottom and they form a (dumb plan) to sell when the price get's back tot presale.
They sell at presale and are happy with a "money back - no profit"
Smart money investors profit form their buying and sell there
That's what happened, so the price dropped again.
Much less panic selling (the dumbest investors are liquidated)
Price drops to al higher low.
Smart investors re-buy low.
Conclusion:
Dumb money is at a 50% loss
A little less dumb money is at break even 0%
Smart money is at 150% win
Put this story next to the chart and prove me wrong.
Note
DOUBLE BOTTOM IN ...New trade active
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