A Perfect Storm for Oil Has Begun
The start of April triggered a brutal selloff in oil, and it's only the beginning. Here’s why:
🛑 Global Trade Wars
On April 2nd, Trump launched a full-scale trade war. New tariffs could reach 23% — the highest in a century. China, the world’s largest oil importer, now faces 145% tariffs. Global trade slowdown = weaker demand for oil. Result? Oil dropped 10% in just 2 days — one of the worst drops in history.
📉 US at Risk Too
Goldman Sachs raised recession odds from 15% to 35%. Atlanta FED sees weakening GDP. The whole world slows down — and so does oil demand.
🛢️ OPEC Surprise Output Hike
OPEC+ has started increasing output — over 2.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The April hike alone was supposed to be 138,000 bpd, but turned out to be 411,000 bpd — triple the forecast. This is a MAJOR bearish shock to the market.
Flashback: Spring 2020 — OPEC raised output during an economic crisis. Oil dropped 65%.
The start of April triggered a brutal selloff in oil, and it's only the beginning. Here’s why:
🛑 Global Trade Wars
On April 2nd, Trump launched a full-scale trade war. New tariffs could reach 23% — the highest in a century. China, the world’s largest oil importer, now faces 145% tariffs. Global trade slowdown = weaker demand for oil. Result? Oil dropped 10% in just 2 days — one of the worst drops in history.
📉 US at Risk Too
Goldman Sachs raised recession odds from 15% to 35%. Atlanta FED sees weakening GDP. The whole world slows down — and so does oil demand.
🛢️ OPEC Surprise Output Hike
OPEC+ has started increasing output — over 2.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The April hike alone was supposed to be 138,000 bpd, but turned out to be 411,000 bpd — triple the forecast. This is a MAJOR bearish shock to the market.
Flashback: Spring 2020 — OPEC raised output during an economic crisis. Oil dropped 65%.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.