WTI Crude Oil: Bubble burst on the go? Or rocket to space? 25.4
Updated
Let's be practical.
There's 2 ways this can go.
(refer back to my 19.4 update about the slip we see in the last few days)
1) Triangle consolidation since the peak of 128 back in March is with a 102.90 resistance level.
A breakout above with a daily candle close confirms up-trend breakout and 105, 108, 115 would be immediate possible targets.
2) A breakout below cluster level of supports between 94-96 will be confirmed with a close below 93-94 with a daily candle.
This would be high probability bubble burst similar to what we've witnessed back in 2008, 2014 and 2018 with massive $50+ declines.
Immediate possible targets would be 88, 84 and 75.
Fundamentally speaking, Chinese lockdown as well as India possibly also announcing restrictions soon provides bearish support together with possibility of reserve release from multiple directions (USA, China, SHELL, Aramco, OPEC, etc...).
For the bullish fundamentals we have war escalating (already going for 3 month, most probable impact is priced in) and inflation (During 2008 inflation did not help oil keep above 3 figures for more than days).
On a personal note - I believe there's higher probability for a breakout down considering above points.
I encourage you to do your own research before trading this idea or in general :)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow - It would mean the world to me :D
I'm open for any question in private or as a comment , don't hesitate to contact me!
My goal is to reach out and help as many traders as I can :)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There's 2 ways this can go.
(refer back to my 19.4 update about the slip we see in the last few days)
1) Triangle consolidation since the peak of 128 back in March is with a 102.90 resistance level.
A breakout above with a daily candle close confirms up-trend breakout and 105, 108, 115 would be immediate possible targets.
2) A breakout below cluster level of supports between 94-96 will be confirmed with a close below 93-94 with a daily candle.
This would be high probability bubble burst similar to what we've witnessed back in 2008, 2014 and 2018 with massive $50+ declines.
Immediate possible targets would be 88, 84 and 75.
Fundamentally speaking, Chinese lockdown as well as India possibly also announcing restrictions soon provides bearish support together with possibility of reserve release from multiple directions (USA, China, SHELL, Aramco, OPEC, etc...).
For the bullish fundamentals we have war escalating (already going for 3 month, most probable impact is priced in) and inflation (During 2008 inflation did not help oil keep above 3 figures for more than days).
On a personal note - I believe there's higher probability for a breakout down considering above points.
I encourage you to do your own research before trading this idea or in general :)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow - It would mean the world to me :D
I'm open for any question in private or as a comment , don't hesitate to contact me!
My goal is to reach out and help as many traders as I can :)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade active
Playing around the critical support level, 98.50, 100 , 101.50, 102.90 are possible retest levels on the way down.
A break above 102.90 would be shift but very unlikely
Trade active
Keeping below 102.90 - Accurately tested and dropped from said level.Trade closed: stop reached
Surprisingly, WTI was able to bypass 102.90 and pretty much immediately proceeded with a swift jump from breakout all the way to 106.60 - now with this breakout the shift is to a up-trend and 108.50 should be the next target for the movement with a 105.20 support.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.