Crude oil - consolidation?
Crude oil has pulled back a touch this morning with front-month WTI trading around $77. It could be that the market is ready to consolidate after a significant bull run, which began just before Christmas. WTI is up 12% since 20th December, and 15% from its last significant low point, hit earlier that month. A bounce in crude prices has been overdue for a while now, given the downtrend which has been playing out ever since prices peaked in early 2022, soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, front-month WTI has held above $65 per barrel on a daily closing basis. So, while this latest rally may see crude break out of its downtrend, it remains within sight of that multi-year low. Last year, crude prices came under constant selling pressure as the outlook for global demand growth was repeatedly revised down. China’s economic slump following its property bust was the main driver of these revisions. It remains to be seen if promises of monetary and fiscal support from Chinese authorities will prove substantial enough to improve this dynamic. Currently, crude is getting a boost from the cold weather across Europe and parts of the US, as well as from fresh US sanctions on Russian oil sales.
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