Crude oil rallied sharply last Thursday, but not by enough to push prices into positive territory for the week, let alone the month of February. It went on to sell off sharply yesterday, following a report that OPEC+ would not be extending their production cuts beyond April. The production cuts have been running since May 2023, and have been extended on several occasions. Most analysts believed that OPEC would roll over the cuts beyond April, given the supply dynamics that have kept prices subdued, along with a succession of downgrades to the demand growth outlook. It is now estimated that supply will be boosted by an additional 138,000 barrels per day, mostly from Saudi Arabia and Russia. With Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada kicking in today, and with China retaliating against additional tariffs with levies of its own on US imports, the world trade situation is getting increasingly, and unnecessarily, complex. Front-month WTI continues to trade south of $70 per barrel and this will be its first hurdle on any rally attempt. The daily MACD is in negative territory, but it is not back to the kind of oversold levels from which big rallies have previously begun. Overall, it feels as if the bears have control, having driven back prices from the highs made in mid-January. Back then, crude looked as if it had finally broken out of a downtrend which had been building from September 2023. Crude was lower again this morning, shrugging off some relatively upbeat manufacturing data from China. Investors have yet to be convinced that the Chinese economy is ready to recover from its disastrous property collapse. This saw the evaporation of billions of yuan, with a significant proportion owned by private citizens, and the subsequent loss of confidence.
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This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.