WTI Crude Oil — Bullish Reversal in Play as War Risk Escalates
Technical & Geopolitical Outlook — Weekly Chart | 17 June 2025
🧭 Current Market Condition:
WTI crude oil is breaking out of a multi-month falling wedge, a classically bullish reversal pattern, after bouncing from the $67–68 support region. This technical move is further amplified by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fears of a potential U.S. military strike on Iran, which would threaten global oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The current breakout attempt aligns with a sentiment shift from oversold to recovery mode, supported by a sharp rise in weekly momentum indicators.
📊 Key Technical Highlights:
Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout: Price breaking above descending resistance.
Key Resistance Levels:
$76.67 – immediate supply zone
$92.82 – prior breakout area; major target if breakout sustains
Key Support Levels:
$71.28 – breakout retest level
$67.00–$68.00 – wedge base, strong historical support
$52.00 – longer-term bearish invalidation (unlikely unless demand collapses)
Momentum: Weekly stochastic sharply rising from bottom, signaling strength building.
🔺 Bullish Scenario — If U.S. Attacks Iran:
If the U.S. carries out military strikes on Iranian targets, oil prices are highly likely to:
Price in geopolitical risk premium of $10–$20/barrel.
Spike toward $90–$100 range within days or weeks due to:
Fears of supply disruption (Hormuz choke point)
Panic buying and short covering
Strategic reserves hoarding
Technical Targets:
$76.67 → Break above confirms bullish continuation
$92.82 → First major upside target
$100–$110 → Stretch target if conflict escalates or prolongs
🛢️ Energy traders and institutions typically front-run geopolitical escalations, so price can jump before any physical conflict if tensions remain unresolved or rhetoric intensifies.
🔻 Bearish Scenario — Fake Breakout or De-escalation:
Rejection from $76.67 or failure to hold above $71.28 can trigger pullbacks.
If tensions cool and Iran conflict is diplomatically diffused:
WTI may slide back toward $68.00 and re-enter the wedge.
Below $67.00, oil could revisit $60–$52 range in a risk-off macro environment.
🛡️ Risk Management & Outlook:
Geopolitical events can override technicals, especially in commodities.
Gaps, whipsaws, and sharp reversals are common — caution with overnight positions.
Consider hedging strategies or limited-risk option plays if trading leveraged oil instruments.
📢 If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Technical & Geopolitical Outlook — Weekly Chart | 17 June 2025
🧭 Current Market Condition:
WTI crude oil is breaking out of a multi-month falling wedge, a classically bullish reversal pattern, after bouncing from the $67–68 support region. This technical move is further amplified by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fears of a potential U.S. military strike on Iran, which would threaten global oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The current breakout attempt aligns with a sentiment shift from oversold to recovery mode, supported by a sharp rise in weekly momentum indicators.
📊 Key Technical Highlights:
Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout: Price breaking above descending resistance.
Key Resistance Levels:
$76.67 – immediate supply zone
$92.82 – prior breakout area; major target if breakout sustains
Key Support Levels:
$71.28 – breakout retest level
$67.00–$68.00 – wedge base, strong historical support
$52.00 – longer-term bearish invalidation (unlikely unless demand collapses)
Momentum: Weekly stochastic sharply rising from bottom, signaling strength building.
🔺 Bullish Scenario — If U.S. Attacks Iran:
If the U.S. carries out military strikes on Iranian targets, oil prices are highly likely to:
Price in geopolitical risk premium of $10–$20/barrel.
Spike toward $90–$100 range within days or weeks due to:
Fears of supply disruption (Hormuz choke point)
Panic buying and short covering
Strategic reserves hoarding
Technical Targets:
$76.67 → Break above confirms bullish continuation
$92.82 → First major upside target
$100–$110 → Stretch target if conflict escalates or prolongs
🛢️ Energy traders and institutions typically front-run geopolitical escalations, so price can jump before any physical conflict if tensions remain unresolved or rhetoric intensifies.
🔻 Bearish Scenario — Fake Breakout or De-escalation:
Rejection from $76.67 or failure to hold above $71.28 can trigger pullbacks.
If tensions cool and Iran conflict is diplomatically diffused:
WTI may slide back toward $68.00 and re-enter the wedge.
Below $67.00, oil could revisit $60–$52 range in a risk-off macro environment.
🛡️ Risk Management & Outlook:
Geopolitical events can override technicals, especially in commodities.
Gaps, whipsaws, and sharp reversals are common — caution with overnight positions.
Consider hedging strategies or limited-risk option plays if trading leveraged oil instruments.
📢 If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.