Updated

USOIL - WTICOUSD

HTF chart for oil has been very bearish since the large gap up ($7+) due to attack on SA key oil facilities

Daily
-On the SA event, price gap up & went right into Supply zone and reverse
-Price has been very weak afterward as it didn't have meaningful retracement, basically drop and consolidate & continue sliding lower
-Last week price develop a fresh Supply zone
-Price has now reach long time S&R level @ $50.78 and started to bounce

Summary:
-Short setup is prefer as major sentiment still bearish, price has not yet to reach HTF demand zone

Note

Hourly chart, LTF demand zone is been tested and headed for supply zone above

Note

-Last night price enter supply zone and promptly reverse
-A fresh LTF demand zone was formed prior to price reach supply zone but was then completely engulf due to HTF bearish sentiment (On M5 price did bounce a bit)
-So in this case, with HTF bearish view it is much more wisely to take LTF supply zone after all the price of $53.9-$54.8 is a Daily supply zone as well which are well coincide

Note

-Oil made 2nd retest deeper into demand zone and slowly trending upward
-M15 supply zone was engulf along the way & upper supply zone tested before so higher probability for price to rise higher

Note

Daily
-Seems likely support level $50.70 is holding, after 5 days of price consolidation the market close last 2 trading day of the week with bullish candle.
-Price didn't made new low, D1 supply zone was tested & engulf.
-All of the above point to overall change of oil bearish sentiment, will probably look for buy setup rather than short.
-Still, will require more price confirmation for the bullish view.

P.S. "When bearish sentiment change to bullish sentiment or vice versa price often consolidated or ranging in 3-5 days period. In some cases it might took up to weeks, months or years.

Note

-After last week D1 supply zone engulf it seems like oil about to turn bullish but last two Daily close for current week is bearish.
-Price retrace more than 61.8% of the gain.
-Now price is in the range of M30 demand & supply zone.

Note

-Price broke through M30 supply zone and form a new H1 supply zone.
-Then price continue downward and now retest S&R level (current price level).
-Bullish bias didn't established, will consider short setup. Need to watch how price return to H1 supply zone before pull the trigger.
-Overall, bearish bias still maintain on oil.

Note

-Price has been reluctant to drop and yet manage to clear supply zone again.
-However can't really found a decent demand zone to long.
-Would still look to short oil.

Note

-Price break above another supply zone, shall wait & see if price made a gradual pull back to form fresh demand zone at LTF.

Note

HKGan

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HKGan