JICPT| oil may seek support around 68 with a compromised deal
Updated
Hello everyone, crude oil has fell for 3 consecutive days mainly contributed to a compromised deal between leading OPEC producers.
The concern of more suppling more of the crude oil weighed on the price even with an unexpected large drawdown of crude stockpiles released on Wednesday.
From the chart, we can see that crude oil had a very nice rally move from 33 in early Oct. of last year. That's a +130% rise to recent high of $77.
The nearest support level is 69.4 with mid-term MA serves as a holder, whilst the below 66.5-67.5 will act as a solid defense zone for the buyers. That's a nice flip zone I spotted on the daily chart.
From a longer term prospective, the 120-month(5 year) moving average is $66, which I take as a reference level. The possible range move for crude oil is 66-77.
To sum up, I will be keen on the swing trade strategy. To be more specific, buy low at around 66 and sell high around 77 against the backdrop of economic recover.
Frankly speaking, the negative price of crude oil created last is a very low probability event. We know the abnormal thing couldn't last long. Since then, price has been up a lot to be fully recover from the pre-pandemic level. The easy money phase has gone.
In the following period, price may go sideways in the range mentioned above. Could it be over $100 per barrel? It's a bit hard. Do you remember when it was above $100? That's 2011 when Arab spring and civil war in Libya happened. Those affected supply and hence we saw price went up. Also, crude oil was above $100 in 2013 due to good economy in US, and fell in 2014 to around $60 with surprising surge in production and sluggish global demand.
Studying the history will help us predict the future. With a big picture in our head, we will have less probability of making big mistakes. Give me a like if you're with me!
The concern of more suppling more of the crude oil weighed on the price even with an unexpected large drawdown of crude stockpiles released on Wednesday.
From the chart, we can see that crude oil had a very nice rally move from 33 in early Oct. of last year. That's a +130% rise to recent high of $77.
The nearest support level is 69.4 with mid-term MA serves as a holder, whilst the below 66.5-67.5 will act as a solid defense zone for the buyers. That's a nice flip zone I spotted on the daily chart.
From a longer term prospective, the 120-month(5 year) moving average is $66, which I take as a reference level. The possible range move for crude oil is 66-77.
To sum up, I will be keen on the swing trade strategy. To be more specific, buy low at around 66 and sell high around 77 against the backdrop of economic recover.
Frankly speaking, the negative price of crude oil created last is a very low probability event. We know the abnormal thing couldn't last long. Since then, price has been up a lot to be fully recover from the pre-pandemic level. The easy money phase has gone.
In the following period, price may go sideways in the range mentioned above. Could it be over $100 per barrel? It's a bit hard. Do you remember when it was above $100? That's 2011 when Arab spring and civil war in Libya happened. Those affected supply and hence we saw price went up. Also, crude oil was above $100 in 2013 due to good economy in US, and fell in 2014 to around $60 with surprising surge in production and sluggish global demand.
Studying the history will help us predict the future. With a big picture in our head, we will have less probability of making big mistakes. Give me a like if you're with me!
Note
Oil is coming down to test my pre-planned zone. Let's see how it reacts to the zone. 
plan your trade and trade your plan
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