Oil bearish trend resumes

I believe that we have been in a slow oscillating move to the high of $64.50. Which is a previous resistance area. The flash news of Israel planning on attacking Iran nuclear facilities caused a rally on the daily open. The markets viewed that this appears to be very unlikely to occur.
Price then hit the daily resistance area and started to fall since reaching these highs.
Today the build on oil inventories appears to have sealed oils fate and the downward pressure has continued.

Note

During the night news broke that 'OPEC+ discusses another 411k b/d output hike in July - Delegates.' oil briefly rallied and on EU market open fell 120 pips. Adding further to downward pressure.

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The next ordinary meeting of the OPEC Conference is scheduled for May 28, 2025. Same day as inventories. It would probably be wise to keep out of the markets on that day until all news has completed.

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Whilst the PMI result today was positive. The long term view on Oil is bearish, with prices still pushing down. Equally, equities such as BP and Shell are still falling. Tade still active.

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EU's Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis: The G7 ministers put forth proposals on the next package of EU sanctions on Russia's oil price cap adjustments.
EU's Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis: There was a suggestion to lower the oil price cap to $50 a barrel.
This does not seem to have created an impact on oil price and it has continued to fall. Potentially as this was previous news that appears to be priced in.

Note

Oil enjoyed a brief rally, but the following comments appeared at the reversal at 20:30 22/5/2025
Mexico's Foreign Min. Ebrard: I will talk about steel and aluminum tariffs, tariffs related to fentanyl, and immigration in my visit to Washington.
Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi: We have the capability to build a nuclear weapon, but we do not have the will to do so.
Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi: The idea of a uranium enrichment consortium is not bad, but will not replace enrichment on Iranian soil.
Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi: The Americans should look for a Plan B if the talks fail, Iran will continue its path.

7 days ago

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We are now deep inside the 4H Support zone and looking to crack it. The fundamentals are stacking up against oil with further news that OPEC will maintain the removal of oil production limits well into the third quarter of this year.

7 days ago

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Price has returned back to the weekly open at $62.294. We will have to see if the price continues downward momentum. Fundamentals suggest so with production continuing to increase over the coming year. Date to watch is June 1st for next OPEC meeting

opec.org/pr-detail/243563-03-may-2025.html

7 days ago

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A brief rally at the close of the week is well summoned up here.

tradingview.com/news/te_news:459938:0-oil-reverses-third-weekly-gain-on-opec-supply-boost/

3 days ago

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After a generally non eventful weekend. Even though some of the things that happened did cause some headline news. The trading world looks once again at the potential that OPEC will return to oversupply and shorts covering have closed, causing the market to start drifting lower.
Price will need to crack the 4H support, but after 3 attempts, I believe this will easily crack before a 4H FVG is hit.

2 days ago

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Continued sideways move and it is still looking for a breakout. OPEC is still looking to continue removing voluntary cuts. This post suggest more oil supply.

oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Will-Allow-Chevron-to-Keep-Venezuelan-Assets.html

2 days ago

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Interesting times, the latest Inventories showed the following. We now look forward to OPEC who persist in suggesting that they will remove all voluntary cuts by October.
🛢️ Crude Oil
Interpretation: The commercial crude inventories have increased YoY, indicating stronger domestic production or lower refining rates over the past year, while SPR continues to be drawn down.
⛽ Motor Gasoline
Interpretation: Gasoline stocks are tightening, especially blending components, possibly reflecting pre-summer demand or reduced refinery output.
🛫 Jet Fuel
Interpretation: A slight draw this week and year-over-year indicates stable but slightly declining jet fuel inventories.
🛢️ Distillate Fuel Oil
Interpretation: A significant decline in ultra-low sulfur distillates suggests tighter diesel supplies.
⚓ Residual Fuel Oil
Interpretation: Residual fuel, often used in marine and power applications, is building slightly.
🏭 Other Categories
Interpretation: Most secondary stock categories are significantly down YoY, likely due to higher demand or export activity, while unfinished oils rose this week—possibly indicating refining inputs being stockpiled.

⚠️ Key Takeaways
Inventories for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel are declining both weekly and annually — signaling tighter supply conditions.
Commercial crude is higher YoY, but refined products are consistently lower.
The SPR drawdown continues, albeit slowly, which may affect long-term strategic reserves.

yesterday

Note

Quite Significant news today:

US Appeals Court reinstates Trump tariffs during appeal.
Appeals Court temporarily halts ruling against Trump tariffs.
Isreal accepts U.S. proposal for ceasefire with Hamas

17 hours ago

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We just had two significant news items hit today and down it goes.

OPEC+ may discuss an oil output hike larger than 411,000 bpd for July at a meeting on
Trump: China violated its agreement with US. China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, has totally violated its agreement with the US on tariffs. - Truth Social

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